Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 1998

NOT MUCH PCPN REMAINING FROM LAST EVE MCS ACROSS S CNTRL MO...EXCEPT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  SHRTWV BEEN TRACKING PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HARD
TO PICK OUT ON WV IMAGERY DUE TO CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER.  CLOUD COVER
THINNED YDA AND ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF CWA.  UPR LVL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE W KEEPING US IN NW FLOW
PATTERN.  SFC ANALYSIS HAS TROF FROM SW CORNER OF MO INTO LAKE OF THE
OZARKS REGION WITH CDFNT FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO QUINCY.  KSGF WAS
SHOWING STORMS FORMING ACROSS HENRY/BATES COUNTY AND HAVE BEEN
REGENERATING TO THE S AND W DURING THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF.  IR
SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING TOPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

MAIN FCST FOCUS WILL BE WITH TSRA CHANCES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING AND BRINGING CURRENT SHRTWV ACROSS S MO TDA AND NEXT WV
INTO CNTRL PLAINS DURING LATER PDS.  TEMPS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TDA
WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM CONVECTION.

WITH NW FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LOOK FOR CDFNT TO ADVANCE SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z.  MUCH DRIER AIR INDICATED FROM 06Z
SFC ANALYSIS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS N MO/IA.  CONTINUING TO USE ETA
AS GUIDANCE AS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF SHIFTS.  ETA AFTERNOON CAPES OF
2-3K J/KG ARE PROJECTED ACROSS CNTRL S MO INTO JUICY AIR WITH
CDFNT/SHRTWV IN THE AREA AS WELL.  WILL KEEP 40 POPS ACROSS ALL BUT
MY NE COUNTIES WHICH WILL PUT A 30 POP IN.  WOULD LIKE TO MAINTAIN A
30 POP FROM BRANSON TO WEST PLAINS TONIGHT...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF
CWA SHOULD GO PARTLY CLOUDY.

HAVE GONE FROM OVERDOING TEMPS TO UNDER-CUTTING TEMPS PAST TWO
NIGHTS. CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION LOOKS THICKER ACROSS CWA THAN YDA
AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD HINDER TEMP RISE MORE SO THAN YDA.  WILL GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER FAN/ETA 2M TEMPS TDA.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA...
SGF/JLN/FT SCOTT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.  NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

BRANSON/UNO/EMINENCE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.  WIND BECOMING NORTH
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

AIZ/VIH...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.  NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

CCF
SGF EB 086/065 087/064 088 05422
JLN EB 086/065 088/065 090 05422

LINDENBERG