Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 1998

KSGF 88D WAS SHOWING SCT TSRA IN EXTREME E KS INTO E OK WITH BULK OF
STRONGER ECHOS IN OK.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW SPEED MAX ACROSS W
MO/E KS AROUND UPR LVL DISTURBANCE IN NE AR/SE MO...HOWEVER BELIEVE
TSRA ACTIVITY MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ...K INDICES OF 30 TO
40...AND GOOD MOIST INFLUX AT 850.  850 PROFILER WINDS SHOW JET MAX
OF 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS OK NOSING INTO THE CONVECTION.  SFC DWPNTS IN
THIS REGION WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SHRTWV ACROSS NE AR/SE MO WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT BUT SHOULD LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TDA.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF 30 POPS IN
MY MOST EASTERN COUNTIES.  ETA SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE THE BEST
YDA.  INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS E KS/OK THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 90 MAY SEE SCT CONVECTION IN W GROUP TDA AND
WOULD LIKE A 30 POP THERE.  LARGE SECTION OF MIDDLE CWA WILL KEEP DRY.

INTERESTING FCST IN STORE FOR TONIGHT/MON AS MODELS HANDLE HIGH
PLAINS SHRTWV VERY DIFFERENTLY.  THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN
TONIGHT/MON WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT.  ETA IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TONIGHT.  TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE WITH NW FLOW TAKING IT SE OVERNIGHT INTO W SECTIONS OF CWA.
CCF WILL HAVE 30 POPS FOR JLN TONIGHT AND NOTHING FURTHER E.

NGM DOES NOT PICK UP ON THIS SHRTWV VERY WELL AND THUS DOES NOT BRING
IN MUCH PCPN/CLOUDS ON MON AND KEEP TEMPS HIGHER.  NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD TAKE TSRA FROM NW TO SE SO BULK OF PCPN WILL OCCUR S AND W OF
AN AIZ TO UNO LINE MON.  HAVE GONE WITH A FAN/FWC MIX UNTIL MONDAY
AND WENT CLOSER TO ETA 2M THEN DUE TO PCPN/CLOUD COVER.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA...

NEOSHO/JLN/FT SCOTT/NEVADA...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH AROUND 90.  SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH. (30-40
POP TONIGHT/50 MONDAY)

BRANSON/SGF/LEBANON/AIZ...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S.
 SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. (NO POP TONIGHT/40 MONDAY)

UNO/EMINENCE/VIH...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 8v5 TO 90.  SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH. (NO POP TONIGHT/30 MONDAY)

CCF
SGF BC 089/068 086/065 085 05114
JLN BT 091/071 084/067 087 05335

LINDENBERG