Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
120 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 1998

1ST PERIOD PROBLEMS...CLOUDS AND POPS.

18Z SURFACE CHART HAS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST WEST OF JOPLIN THEN INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...JUST EAST OF ARDMORE.  DRY SLOT AROUND LOW PRESSURE
OVER IOWA HAS MOVED INTO AREA WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BEING REPORTED.

MODELS TAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
AREA.  LIKE NGM HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE FIELDS
THE BEST.  DEEPEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF CWA THROUGH
PERIOD. DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK THROUGH PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES EAST.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SETTING OFF SOME
SHOWERS.

1ST PERIOD RECOMMENDATIONS (COORDINATION PURPOSE ONLY)

COU GROUP...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH.

SGF GROUP...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE MIDDLE 60S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH.

JLN GROUP...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

UNO GROUP...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

CCF...
SGF EE 067/082 066/082 067 24443
JLN EB 069/085 068/084 068 24333

JOHNSON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 1998

THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:          BOURBON        CHEROKEE       CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER IOWA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD.

AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM THIS EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED AND STORM SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JOHNSON