Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 AM CDT THU JUL 2 1998

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S AR INTO W OK AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  GRIDDS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM W SD INTO E CO AND A COUPLE OF MCS'S HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THIS AREA ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.  REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SE
MOVEMENT WITH THE STORMS ACROSS W KS/NE CO WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
850/300 THICKNESS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH POPS AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N
AND BACK INTO THE AREA.  A SECOND FRONT WILL ALSO BE HEADING S INTO
THE N PLAINS/UPR MS VLY BY LATE IN THE PD.

UPR AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP US IN THE NW FLOW REGIME WITH RIDGE
IN THE ROCKIES.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF OFF THE PAC COAST WHICH LOOKS
TO PUSH INLAND AND ADVANCE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

HAVE GONE WITH THE NGM AGAIN TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN POOR WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENTS DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.  MOS POPS CONTINUE TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH
RUN.  INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SW TO NE.  WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN FOR JLN/SGF
TDA AND TAKE OUT POPS DURING THE DAY FOR CNTRL/S CNTRL MO.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND IF NGM POSITIONING IS CORRECT WOULD PUSH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THUS WOULD LIKE POPS FOR ALL CWA TONIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK IN AGREEMENT WITH ETA 2M SLIGHTLY WARMER. HAVE
GONE WITH A COMBO IN MY CCF NUMBERS THIS MORNING.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA (FOR COORDINATION ONLY)
SGF/JLN...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH AROUND 90.  SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.
UNO...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.  HIGH AROUND 90.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
VIH/AIZ...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER.  HIGH 85 TO 90.  WIND BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

CCF
SGF BE 089/072 091/071 092 05344
JLN BE 091/074 093/074 094 05344

LINDENBERG