Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CST FRI MAR 27 1998

FORECAST PROBLEMS: TEMPERATURES...MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY

FORECAST AREA IN THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM AS 500 MB SYSTEM SPINS
UP OVER NEW MEXICO. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH ALSO
PERSISTED. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE SECOND AREA
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SLOWER AVN MODEL SOLUTION FROM LAST NIGHT PANNED OUT. ETA/AVN ARE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NGM WITH THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB VORT
MAX AND ARE PREFERRED.

LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES AT 800 MB ON 00Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING
WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN
STRONG DYNAMICS ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT (MAINLY
FROM DAMAGING WINDS) WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...
LOCATIONS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON SURFACE INSTABILITIES: STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. EAST OF
SPRINGFIELD...HOWEVER... MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT INTO THIS AREA...CREATING GREATER
INSTABILITY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BY 5 AM.

AFTER OVERESTIMATING TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL THURSDAY...WILL TRY TO
COME BACK TO REALITY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL KEEP A LID ON HIGHS WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD WITH WEST PLAINS AND VICHY AREAS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARM SPOTS TODAY. ETA 2 METER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
COOL...SHOW THIS WELL. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT
THE SOUTH WIND WILL REMAIN SO WILL NOT SEE A DRASTIC COOLDOWN.

WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE ADVISORY RANGE THIS MORNING...WITH
EMPORIA KANSAS GUSTING TO 41 MPH AT 2 AM. A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
A GOOD IDEA AGAIN TODAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

RECOMMENDATIONS (PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)
...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...
SPRINGFIELD/BRANSON: WINDY AND WARM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTY. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
JOPLIN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS: WINDY AND WARM WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTY BECOMING SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
WEST PLAINS/VICHY/ROLLA: WINDY AND WARM WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY. CHANCE OF RAIN
INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT BY NOON.

SGF TB 072/053 075/055 075 0862-
JLN TB 073/054 078/058 078 0861-

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST FRI MAR 27 1998

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BOURBON         CHEROKEE      CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
...WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI.  WIND SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLIER TODAY CAUSING SOME DOWNED POWER LINES AND
KNOCKING OVER SMALL TREES.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS.  THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING NORTHEAST AND WILL
AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AS STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP AND ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG WIND
SPEEDS.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTERNO0N.

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ACTIVATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

LINDENBERG