Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OF CONCERN TODAY

WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME. 00Z RUC DATA AND REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP POINT TO 850 MB WARM FRONT AS THE CAUSE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH WARM
FRONT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ERUPTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING TRYING TO SETTLE DOWN...WITH
WESTERN KANSAS THE MAIN AREA OF DEVELOPMENT NOW.

MODELS AGREE IN PRINCIPLE BUT GIVEN THEIR LESS THAN STELLAR
PERFORMANCE AS OF LATE...NOT SURE HOW MUCH WEIGHT TO GIVE THEM.
TREND IS TO MOVE A WAVE FROM COLORADO TO MINNESOTA TODAY AND THEN
BUILD HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SHOW ME STATE ON TUESDAY.

FIRST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WAVE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT AND SOME SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOGIC POINTS TOWARD NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRIME LOCATION. GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD ARE REASONABLE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MCS POSSIBLE OVER
NEBRASKA/IOWA. ETA PICKS UP ON THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE THE MODEL
THAT I USE TODAY. WHILE THIS MCS COULD BRUSH THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST PLACES SHOULD ESCAPE ITS WRATH.

WOULD NOT BE OPPOSED TO A LOW CHANCE POP ON TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB.
CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS MAY ALSO BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A FEW BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH GUIDANCE VALUES. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOTED AT 850 MB AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS POINT TOWARD
A STRONG WARMUP TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN JOPLIN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

RECOMMENDATIONS(PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY)
SGF: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH NEAR 70. SOUTH WIND
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY.
JLN: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY.
UNO: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH NEAR 70. SOUTH WIND
10 TO 20 MPH.
AIZ/VIH: MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 tMPH.

SGF EB 070/065 085/066 085 08532
JLN EB 072/067 089/067 087 08532

SUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
1037 AM CDT MON JUN 08 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1012 AM    MT VERNON                 MO    1.75 INCH HAIL
06/08/98   LAWRENCE

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
1043 AM CDT MON JUN 08 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 AM    JANE                      MO    .75 INCH HAIL
06/08/98   MCDONALD

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BOURBON         CHEROKEE      CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS INTERACTING
WITH MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BECOMING SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE GROUND THERE REMAINS SATURATED FROM LAST WEEKS HEAVY
RAIN AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL.  ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RUNOFF AS FLOODING.

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BOURBON         CHEROKEE      CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS INTERACTING
WITH MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BECOMING SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE GROUND THERE REMAINS SATURATED FROM LAST WEEKS HEAVY
RAIN AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL.  ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RUNOFF AS FLOODING.

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LINDENBERG