Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 1998

WELL...18Z SFC ANLYS HAS QSTNRY FNT FM CPS-HRO-TIK TO A LOW NR AMA.
DRY LINE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACRS WRN TX.  18Z ADAP HAS MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF FNT...WITH LIS OF -13.  HOWEVER...CAP IS HOLDING
ATTM.  CAPE IN SRN OK IS 5000 J/KG ON OK MESONET.  N OF THE FNT
THE CAP HAS BROKE AND RESULTED IN SCT CONVECTION WHICH IS ABOUT TO
ENTER WRN TIER OF MO COUNTIES.  ONLY LEVEL 2 AND 3 LEVEL ATTM.

FCST PROB OF PD...POPS/QPF...

NEW MODELS HAVE QUITE A CONTRAST ON AMOUNT OF QPF...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.  ETA COMPLETELY MISSED MCS IN WRN OK AND CONVECTION ACRS
SW KS/NE OK.  NGM PARTIALLY PICKED ON IT...BUT BOTH ACKNOWLEDGE A
MCS MOVG INTO CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS SERIES OF UPR LEVEL SHRTWV
INTERSECT ALONG SLY INFLOW OF 40 KNOTS ON WRN EDGE OF FNT.  CORDFI
THICKNESS VECTORS TAKE THIS BLOB TO THE E OVRNGT.  PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO BLO 1 INCH FOR 1ST TIME IN RECENT MEMORY.
.
HOWEVER...NORMAN HAD 1.20 WHICH IS 120% OF NORMAL.  NEW 94E AFOS
PRODUCT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WORRY ABOUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING
THE AREA OVRNGT.  WL LIKE FAN POPS THE BEST AND WL USE THE NGM
FOR THE RNFL.  QPF WL BE A CHALLENGE WITH IFFY PCPN PLACEMENT.

RECOMMENDATIONS (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

SE KS/JLN...THIS EVENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND 70.  OVERNIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  LOW IN THE MID 60S.

SGF/UNO...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.  TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S.  OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.  LOW 60 TO 65.

AIZ/VIH...INCREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE.  LOW AROUND 60.

SGF RW 062/078 060/081 060 04676
JLN RW 063/081 061/083 062 04665

GORDON