Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 AM CDT TUE APR 28 1998

MIDNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF CHANUTE WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OUT OF THE LOW INTO N AR AND CNTRL
TN.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL LA WITH SVR
WEATHER OCCURRING OVR E LA.  00Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENT
PATTERN FROM S CNTRL MO INTO THE TN/OH VLY.  RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW THE DIFFLUENCE NICELY AND ECHOES ACROSS S CNTRL/SW MO WERE
TRAINING FROM THE S TO THE N.

BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE S STREAM WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE W
COAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SE AS THE NE LOW LIFTS OUT.
 THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS ACROSS KS.  SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE
THE LOW WITH THE MOST PROMINENT ENERGY TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE CWA TDA AND ONGOING CHCS OF LIGHTER RAIN THRU
THE PD.  FOR THIS REASON WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE THE FFA FOR THE CWA
TDA...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF A FFA IS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.

SGF/UNO SAW A BIT OF SUN YDA WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S AND LOW 70S RESPECTIVELY.  TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY TDA
WITH THE SAME REASONING.  BELIEVE THE FWC NUMBERS ARE A BIT HIGH
THOUGH AND WILL TRIM THE TEMPS TO THE LOWER FAN NUMBERS.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA(PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION)
...CONTINUE FFA FOR CWA TDA...
SGF/UNO...PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.  HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.  HIGH 55 TO 60.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
JLN...PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.  HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.  HIGH IN THE MID 50S.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.
VIH/AIZ...PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.  HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.  HIGH 50 TO 55.  EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

CCF
SGF RC 057/045 060/045 063 05944
JLN RC 055/044 062/047 065 05944

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 AM CDT TUE APR 28 1998

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
UNTIL 1025 AM...

DALLAS            DOUGLAS           LACLEDE            OZARK
WEBSTER           WRIGHT

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...

AT 740 AM...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA
OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OZARK COUNTY THROUGH
SPRINGFIELD...INTO EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY.  THIS RAIN BAND HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS IN THE WARNED COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER NEAR THE
MARSHFIELD AREA IN WEBSTER COUNTY.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS KANSAS
TODAY...SENDING IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AROUND THE LOW AND
INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  MEANWHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND WILL AID IN THE
LIFTING TO HELP PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GROUND IN MOST
AREAS IS NOW SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RUNOFF AS FLOODING.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE SAME LOCATION
TONIGHT AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...AND UNDER PASSES.  ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BECAUSE OF THE HILLY TERRAIN ACROSS THE OZARKS...THERE ARE HUNDREDS
OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL SOURCE FOR WEATHER INFORMATION FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.

LINDENBERG