Flash Flood Warning 285, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

FAIRLY BUSY WITH ONGOING WX THIS MORNING...SO THIS WL BE BRIEF. SVR
WX EPISODE HAS TURNED MORE INTO A HVY RAIN EVENT WITH LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION CONTG TO MOVE OVR SAME AREAS ACRS SE KS AND SW MO WITH
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ATTM. LATEST SFC MAP INDCS
FNTL BNDRY ACRS ERN KS BACK INTO WRN OK. ONE SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD
ALONG THE FNT OVR ERN KS WITH A SECOND LOW MOVG INTO SWRN OK.

MAIN FCST PROBLEM WL CONT TO BE HVY RAIN THREAT ACRS MUCH OF CWA
TODAY AND TNGT. MANY LOCATIONS ACRS OUR WRN CWA HAVE PICKED UP ABT
AN INCH AN HOUR OF RAINFALL. JLN RECEIVED JUST OVR 2 INCHES OF RAIN
BETWEEN 06-07Z.

MODELS INDC THAT UPR SYS OVR NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE LTL DURG THE
FCST PD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS FCST TO ROTATE ARND MAIN SYS AS WELL DURG
THE PD...KEEPING A CONTD THREAT OF PRECIP. WL USE A BLEND OF ETA
AND NGM MODELS FOR THIS FCST.

LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION LATER THIS AFTN WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TNGT. CDFNT IS FCST BY THE NGM
TO PUSH ACRS THE LATE TNGT AND ON TUE.

OPTED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TNGT...BUT FOR NOW WL JUST
EXTEND IT THRU TODAY FOR AREAS NW OF A LINE FM ROLLA TO BRANSON.

RECOMMENDATIONS (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)

AIZ/VIH...
TODAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

SE KS/JLN/SGF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

UNO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY. HIGH IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

CCF
SGF TE 075/062 067/054 066 09986
JLN TE 075/058 066/050 065 09985

RICKARD/GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

THE OUTLOOK BELOW CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BOURBON         CHEROKEE      CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FORMED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING. JUST BEFORE DAWN...THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF A
ROLLA TO GALENA LINE AND WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT...MANY AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NUMEROUS COUNTIES WERE
UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROLLA TO BRANSON LINE. PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY HAVE TO BE ACTIVATED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

STAY TUNED FOR THE 1PM HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

RICKARD

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM FOR AREAS EAST
OF A TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...
...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM FOR AREAS WEST OF A
TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

AT 625 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WAS ALONG A MONTAUK STATE PARK TO CABOOL TO
GAINESVILLE LINE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS
OF
AN INCH FELL BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM FROM SALEM TO MOUNTAIN GROVE TO
TECUMSEH.

SHANNON COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS REPORTS THAT THE BUCK HOLLOW
CAMPGROUND ON THE JACKS FORK RIVER HAS FLOODED.  THE RIVER HAS RISEN
TO JUST OVER 7 FEET AND IS STILL RISING.  IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE
CURRENT RIVER OR JACKS FORK RIVER IN SHANNON...DENT OR TEXAS
COUNTIES...BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DOUGLAS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT HIGHWAY EE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
DOUGLAS COUNTY NEAR ANN IS FLOODED.

HICKORY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT THE BRIDGE ON COUNTY ROAD 11
NORTH OF HUMANSVILLE HAS BEEN WASHED OUT.

DESPITE THE LACK OF GROUND TRUTH REPORTS...RAINFALL HAS EXCEEDED
GROUND SATURATION LEVELS...THEREFORE MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE
PROBABLY FLOODED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE RAIN HAS EITHER ENDED OR IS VERY LIGHT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
RUNOFF IS RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AT THIS MOMENT...OUR INTENTION IS TO LET THE FLOOD
WARNINGS WEST OF A TUSCUMBIA TO BUFFALO TO GAINESVILLE LINE EXPIRE
ON
SCHEDULE AT 8 AM.

DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS OR ROADS WITH BARRICADES.   FIND AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE FOR YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES.
GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>094-101-051500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT FFS AS SPS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE AND BOURBON COUNTIES
   IN KANSAS UNTIL 10 AM...
...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR VERNON...ST CLAIR...BARTON...CEDAR
...JASPER...DADE...POLK...HICKORY...BENTON...MORGAN...MILLER...CAMDEN
...NEWTON...LAWRENCE...GREENE...WEBSTER...DALLAS...LACLEDE...PULASKI
...MARIES AND MCDONALD COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WEST OF A
   ROLLA TO BRANSON LINE...

AT 7 AM...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM HERMITAGE TO MT VERNON TO MONETT.
ALL OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
WHILE THE AREA IS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

TWO HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM 5 TO 7 AM AVERAGED FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES FROM OSCEOLA TO SHELDON AND FROM GOLDEN CITY
TO SENECA.  SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 AND ONE HALF INCHES FROM OSAGE BEACH TO JOPLIN.

SOME OF THE HEAVIEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL INCLUDE:
7.3 INCHES INCHES IN LAMAR
6.1 INCHES IN JERICO SPRINGS
5.6 INCHES IN STOCKTON AND JOPLIN
5.5 INCHES IN PITTSBURG MISSOURI
4.3 INCHES IN WACO
4.2 INCHES NEAR ADONIS IN POLK COUNTY

IN CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...HIGHWAY 160 AND HIGHWAY 7 IN THE
TOWN OF CHEROKEE ARE CLOSED.  HIGHWAY 57 EAST OF GIRARD IS
PARTIALLY FLOODED. IN CHEROKEE COUNTY...OVER TWO FEET OF WATER WAS
IN PORTIONS OF WEST MINERAL.

THE SHERIFF DEPARTMENT IN THE CITY OF JOPLIN REPORTED THREE TO FOUR
INCHES OF STANDING WATER IN THE STREETS. THE SPRING CREEK IN WACO
IS OUT OF ITS BANKS.

IN VERNON COUNTY...HIGHWAY V NORTH OF STOTESBURY IS CLOSED.

IN BARTON COUNTY...MANY CITY STREETS ARE CLOSED IN LAMAR AND THE
INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 126 AND HIGHWAY 71 IS CLOSED.

IN POLK COUNTY...HIGHWAY 13 IN HUMANSVILLE IS FLOODED.  THE CIVIL
DEFENSE DIRECTOR REPORTS HIGHWAY 32 IS CLOSED WEST OF BOLIVAR.

IN BENTON COUNTY...HIGHWAY 7 NEAR EDWARDS IS CLOSED.

IN BOURBON COUNTY...HIGHWAY 7 AND 31 IS FLOODED.

IN HICKORY COUNTY...HIGHWAY AA FROM WHEATLAND TO WEAUBLEAU CLOSED.

IN ST CLAIR COUNTY...HIGHWAY A WEST OF LOWRY CITY IS FLOODED.

IN MCDONALD COUNTY...HIGHWAY 76 EAST AND WEST OF ANDERSON IS
FLOODED. THE EMBANKMENT ON HIGHWAY NN OFF OF HIGHWAY 71 HAS
PARTIALLY CAVED IN AND IS CLOSED.  SOME OF THE ROCK BLUFFS ON
HIGHWAY H NORTH OF NOEL HAVE FALLEN DOWN AND THE ROAD IS BLOCKED.

SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS IN BARTON...DADE...JASPER...HICKORY...AND CEDAR
COUNTIES REPORT NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND SECONDARY ROADS
ARE FLOODED OR CLOSED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...AND UNDERPASSES.  NEVER
ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROAD

GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>094-101-051500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT FFS AS SPS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE AND BOURBON COUNTIES
   IN KANSAS UNTIL 10 AM...
...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR VERNON...ST CLAIR...BARTON...CEDAR
...JASPER...DADE...POLK...HICKORY...BENTON...MORGAN...MILLER...CAMDEN
...NEWTON...LAWRENCE...GREENE...WEBSTER...DALLAS...LACLEDE...PULASKI
...MARIES AND MCDONALD COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WEST OF A
   ROLLA TO BRANSON LINE...

AT 7 AM...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND IMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM HERMITAGE TO MT VERNON TO MONETT.
ALL OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
WHILE THE AREA IS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

TWO HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM 5 TO 7 AM AVERAGED FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES FROM OSCEOLA TO SHELDON AND FROM GOLDEN CITY
TO SENECA.  SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 AND ONE HALF INCHES FROM OSAGE BEACH TO JOPLIN.

SOME OF THE HEAVIEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL INCLUDE:
7.3 INCHES INCHES IN LAMAR
6.1 INCHES IN JERICO SPRINGS
5.6 INCHES IN STOCKTON AND JOPLIN
5.5 INCHES IN PITTSBURG MISSOURI
4.3 INCHES IN WACO
4.2 INCHES NEAR ADONIS IN POLK COUNTY

IN CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...HIGHWAY 160 AND HIGHWAY 7 IN THE
TOWN OF CHEROKEE ARE CLOSED.  HIGHWAY 57 EAST OF GIRARD IS
PARTIALLY FLOODED. IN CHEROKEE COUNTY...OVER TWO FEET OF WATER WAS
IN PORTIONS OF WEST MINERAL.

THE SHERIFF DEPARTMENT IN THE CITY OF JOPLIN REPORTED THREE TO FOUR
INCHES OF STANDING WATER IN THE STREETS. THE SPRING CREEK IN WACO
IS OUT OF ITS BANKS.

IN VERNON COUNTY...HIGHWAY V NORTH OF STOTESBURY IS CLOSED.

IN BARTON COUNTY...MANY CITY STREETS ARE CLOSED IN LAMAR AND THE
INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 126 AND HIGHWAY 71 IS CLOSED.

IN POLK COUNTY...HIGHWAY 13 IN HUMANSVILLE IS FLOODED.  THE CIVIL
DEFENSE DIRECTOR REPORTS HIGHWAY 32 IS CLOSED WEST OF BOLIVAR.

IN BENTON COUNTY...HIGHWAY 7 NEAR EDWARDS IS CLOSED.

IN BOURBON COUNTY...HIGHWAY 7 AND 31 IS FLOODED.

IN HICKORY COUNTY...HIGHWAY AA FROM WHEATLAND TO WEAUBLEAU CLOSED.

IN ST CLAIR COUNTY...HIGHWAY A WEST OF LOWRY CITY IS FLOODED.

IN MCDONALD COUNTY...HIGHWAY 76 EAST AND WEST OF ANDERSON IS
FLOODED. THE EMBANKMENT ON HIGHWAY NN OFF OF HIGHWAY 71 HAS
PARTIALLY CAVED IN AND IS CLOSED.  SOME OF THE ROCK BLUFFS ON
HIGHWAY H NORTH OF NOEL HAVE FALLEN DOWN AND THE ROAD IS BLOCKED.

SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS IN BARTON...DADE...JASPER...HICKORY...AND CEDAR
COUNTIES REPORT NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND SECONDARY ROADS
ARE FLOODED OR CLOSED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...AND UNDERPASSES.  NEVER
ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROAD

GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>094-101-051500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT FFS AS SPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARN

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>094-101-051500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT FFS AS SPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WARN