Flash Flood Warning 173, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT WED JUL 22 1998

FORECAST PROBLEM: MODEL OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH AN OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION ALONG
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE NOT RISEN
QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED AND HEAT ADVISORY CAN BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BRANSON
AND HARRISON ARKANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KANSAS HAVING AN IDENTITY CRISIS: THE OVERALL
TREND IS ONE OF WEAKENING...BUT OCCASIONAL PULSES HAVE OCCURRED.

BIG QUESTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS WHICH...IF ANY...MODEL TO FOLLOW.
ETA/AVN/MRF PUSH SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS WHILE THE NGM IS MUCH SLOWER. WHILE I AM NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS FORCED ME TO CONSIDER THIS AS POSSIBLE.
STILL...WILL SLOW DOWN THE ETA/AVN MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND SUNRISE AND AGAIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
72 TO 96 HOURS...AND COULD SEE A MADDOX-TYPE FRONTAL TYPE FLASH
FLOOD EVENT DEVELOP. BUT THE GROUND IS DRY FROM 10 DAYS OF BAKING
AND IT WILL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE FLOODING BECOMES A PROBLEM.

OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES: NOT QUITE SURE I CAN
FORECAST THE UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A STRAIGHT FACE.
SO..WILL BLEND THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND GO WITH THAT FOR NOW.

RECOMMENDATION(FORECASTS PROVIDED FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)
SGF/UNO: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 70 TO 75. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
JLN: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MIDDLE 70S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
AIZ/VIH: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 70 TO 75. VARIABLE WIND 5 MPH.

SGF TT 074/088 072/085 072 083535
JLN TT 076/088 072/085 072 083535

SUTTON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED JUL 22 1998

THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:          BOURBON         CHEROKEE      CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON...
...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN THE 100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUED
IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU MUST WORK OUTSIDE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY NORTH OF A PITTSBURG TO
CAMDENTON AND VIENNA LINE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD MORNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A ANOTHER CHANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

SUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
229 PM CDT WED JUL 22 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    FORSYTH                   MO    WIND DAMAGE
07/22/98   TANEY                           TREES BLOWN DOWN IN
                                           FORSYTH AND BETWEEN
                                           FORSYTH AND KISSEE MILZLS

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI
229 PM CDT WED JUL 22 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    FORSYTH                   MO    WIND DAMAGE
07/22/98   TANEY                           TREES BLOWN DOWN IN
                                           FORSYTH AND BETWEEN
                                           FORSYTH AND KISSEE MILZLS

MS