Flash Flood Warning 162, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 1998

05Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N MO.  DWPNTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AROUND THE FRONT AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWING
PLENTY OF ACTIVITY TO THE N AND E OF CWA.  STORM MOVEMENT IS ESE ON
KEAX RADAR AND MORE SE ON KLSX AND WOULDNT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO PUSH
INTO CWA ATTM.

EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE CAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND PW VALUES
OF 1.75 WITH A SLOW STORM MOTION.  FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE PD
AND HOW WELL DEFINED IT WILL BE ACROSS MO.  NGM SEEMED TO INITIALIZE
THE BEST AND WILL USE FOR GUIDANCE.

UPR LVL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OFF THE SFC AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE PD.  MOST OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO BE N AND E
OF THE CWA OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL WAVE
HAS PUSHED INLAND INTO TX.  NGM TAKES SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE N
IN TX THEN NE INTO AR WITH RIDGE PRETTY MUCH DIMINISHING IT DURING
THE LATER PDS.

THUS MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT.  SCT TSRA DID OCCUR ACROSS S MO TDA WITH CAPES OVER 5000
J/KG AND WILL KEEP THE 30 POPS IN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S.
HIGHER POPS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH
S-SE INTO CWA LATER TDA.  SFC HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH MAIN PTN OF FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VLY BY LATE IN THE PD WHILE FURTHER W ACROSS MO...FRONT
LOOKS ILL DEFINED WITH SCHIZOPHRENIC LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT LOW POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST THRU THE PD.

MOS NUMBERS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ETA 2M NOT TOO BAD EITHER.
HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF ALL 3 FOR THE CCF NUMBERS.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA (FOR COORDINATION ONLY)

SGF/UNO...PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND HUMID WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH AROUND 90.  SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 5
TO 10 MPH.
JLN...PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND HUMID WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH 90 TO 95.  SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH.
VIH/AIZ...PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND HUMID WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.  VARIABLE WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

CCF
SGF BE 091/071 088/071 093 05333
JLN BE 093/073 090/073 095 05333

LINDENBERG