Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CDT THU JUN 4 1998

FORECAST PROBLEMS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THAT THE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE 10C 700 MB ISOTHERM. I THOUGHT THE RAIN WOULD
DEVELOP ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION. ANOTHER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION INDICATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

ETA/AVN BLEND CHOSEN AGAIN OVER THE NGM AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE
PRIMARILY TO MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES...BUT NONE
OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION.

CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED IN THE ZONES UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM OVER LAS
VEGAS MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKENS EARLY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WOULD NOT RULE
OUT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.

TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PREVENTS ME FROM ACTING ON THIS NOW.
DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 4PM ZONE PACKAGE.

EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDE TEMPERATURE VARIATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 90 DEGREES AGAIN ALONG
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER. PREFER THE WARMER FWC GUIDANCE TODAY
THEN FAN/FWC REASONABLE IN LATER PERIODS.

RECOMMENDATIONS(PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY)
SGF/JLN: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 75 TO 80. EAST WIND 10
TO 15 MPH.
UNO: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH NEAR 80. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
AIZ/VIH: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 70 TO 75. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

SGF 078/060 073/055 070 08553
JLN 078/061 074/056 072 08553

SUTTON