Tornado Warning 25, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 PM EDT TUE JUNE 16 1998

DISC...
SHORT WV IS SWINGING QUICKLY THRU ERN TN/KY AND IT LOOKS LIKE MY MTN
ZONES MAY BE CLEAR OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFT...AND EAST OF THE
MTNS EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE ETA HAD THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TIMING. THE MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK CAA BEHIND THE SHORT WV...AND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS MAY BE EVEN WARMER WED THAN TODAY-
AT LEAST AS WARM SO MOS LOOKS GOOD. SECOND VORT LOBE TO SWING THRU
WED MORN...ANY ACTION WITH THIS SHUD BE EAST OF MY CWA. LATE WED &
THU THE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK IN THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN. THE
HOT MOS TEMPS STILL LOOK OKAY. THERE MAY BE SOME AFT CONVECTION
THU...BUT THERE WILL BE A CAP WITH WARMER MID LEVELS AND I DON/T SEE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO BREAK THE CAP. THE LOW/NO MOS POPS ARE OKAY FOR
NOW.

ROA 64/87/64/92 3001  RNK 59/80/61/86 2002
LYH 63/85/63/92 3001  BLF 57/78/62/85 2002
DAN 66/89/66/95 3001

JJ

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-161200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 1998

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY OF VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONTS
OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AND A TEMPERATURE PROFILE FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL MEAN THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON POSE
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVITATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

JACKSON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-161200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 1998

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY OF VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONTS
OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AND A TEMPERATURE PROFILE FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL MEAN THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON POSE
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVITATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

JACKSON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-170000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND ALL OF WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 200 PM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. A FEW WILL HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AREAS BY 300 PM.

WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING... PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS. DO NOT USE TELEPHONES OR
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL LARGER THAN DIME SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS
GREATER THAN 58 MPH. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

JACKSON

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 1998

TIME (EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

148 PM     LAUREL FORK               VA   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/16/98   CARROLL

155 PM     4 NNW WILLIS              VA   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/16/98   FLOYD

MTE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 1998

TIME (EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

220 PM     FANCY GAP                 VA   0.88 INCH HAIL
06/16/98   CARROLL

236 PM     LOW GAP                   NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/16/98   SURRY                          REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT.

246 PM     FERRUM                    VA   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/16/98   FRANKLIN

MTE