Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 AM EDT MON JUNE 15 1998

DISC...
LUKS LIKE 850 FNT AND THETA-E RDG IN CNTRL TENN AHEAD OF SFC FNT MVG
INTO WRN TENN RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF STORMS MVG INTO ERN TENN AT
THIS HOUR.  WRM FRNT FROM NEAR TRI TO NEAR GSO EXPTD TO SLWLY LIFT
NORTHWD AND TENN CONVTN SHOULD REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AS IT MOVES ACRS
MTNS...AND WITH NEW SVR WATCH DONT XPCT MUCH WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. 850 JET MAXIMIZING BTWN NOW AND 12Z TO PUSH IT TWD SVR LIMITS.
TIMING FOR DAY PD OF FNT WILL BE THE TRICK.  BOTH ETA/NGM SGST PSTN
OF FRNT NEAR TENN/NC BORDER BY 12Z AND THIS COULD BE A LTL
FAST...BUT WILL LKLY BE NEAR BLUE RDG BY NOON.  BOTH MDLS ALSO SHOW
STRONG MID-LVL DRY PUSH DURING THE DAY...BUT THIS COULD HELP TO
DSTBLZ ATMOS DURING AFT HEATING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLU RDG. WEST
OF THE BLUE RDG WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSRA ONCE THIS
FIRST LINE GETS THRU ARND DAWN TIME FRAME DUE TO THIS DRY PUSH...BUT
IF FNT SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE SCT...PSBLY
SEVERE EVEN OVR NRV AND NC MTNS. DFTLY SVR THREAT FOR EAST OF BLUE
RDG WITH AFT HTG AHEAD OF COLD FNT...JET STILL NOSING IN...CAPES OF
1500 OR MORE...ETC. HIGH CHC POPS GOOD BET EAST OF BLUE RDG...NOT
SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF NGM MOS BUT SURE LIKE FAN POPS BETTER.

MAY WANT TO HOLD ON TO LOW CHC POPS FOR EVE HOURS...ESP PDMT
SECTIONS BUT MOST OF TONITE SHOULD BE PTLY CLDY. NXT S/WV PROGD FOR
TUES AND LUKS TO HAVE A DECENT AMNT OF PUNCH TO IT AND CRNT FCSTS
LOOK ON TRACK.  SOME QUICKY NUMBERS AS I HAVNT HAD A LOT OF TIME TO
CAREFULLY ASSESS:

ROA 85/65/84 324
LYH 84/64/83 534
DAN 90/66/88 534
BLF 79/62/79 214
RNK 80/62/80 324

KEIGHTON

NCZ001>006-018>020-151200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 AM EDT MON JUN 15 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 8 AM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 8
AM EDT MONDAY:

ALLEGHANY          ASHE          CASWELL
ROCKINGHAM         STOKES        SURRY
WATAUGA            WILKES        YADKIN

A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
AT 2 AM EDT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN.  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS SHOULD WATCH FOR
THREATENING WEATHER AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... COMMERCIAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

SJK

NCZ001>006-018>020-151200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 AM EDT MON JUN 15 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 8 AM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 8
AM EDT MONDAY:

ALLEGHANY          ASHE          CASWELL
ROCKINGHAM         STOKES        SURRY
WATAUGA            WILKES        YADKIN

A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
AT 2 AM EDT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAWN.  THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS SHOULD WATCH FOR
THREATENING WEATHER AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... COMMERCIAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

SJK