Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
255 AM EDT WED JUN 10 1998

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA OF TSTMS AHEAD OF A WEAK NRN STREAM WAVE
IN EXTREME ERN KY SEEMS TO BE MOVG RIGHT ALONG THE H85 WARM
FRONT...AND ARE BEING FED BY A 30 KT LLJ WITH STRONG WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVG OVER AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE LAYER AS THEY HEAD SEWD...BUT I EXPECT THAT THEY/LL HOLD
TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL- BRINGING AT LEAST AN AREA OF RAIN TO THE WRN
HALF OF MY CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE 00Z NGM HAD THE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE...BRINGING A SWATH OF PCPN ACROSS SW VA AND INTO NW NC THIS
MORNING. I THINK THIS WILL SLOW THE SFC WARM FNT AND REINFORCE THE
IN-SITU DAMMING AND IT MAY TAKE HALF THE DAY TO MIX OUT THE LOW
CLDS/FOG EAST OF THE MTNS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME. I/M NOT
TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CHCS OF AFT CONVECTION NOW. BEST CHCS IN MY
SRN AND WRN SECTIONS AS THE SFC FNT APPCHES.

ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SFC FNT RIGHT IN THE AREA THRU THU. BOTH
THE ETA AND NGM ARE IND SOME OVERRUNNING PCPN MOVG IN THU MORN WITH
THE NEXT SHORT WV. MOST OF MY CWA WOULD PROB BE TOO STABLE FOR EVEN
ELEVATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THAT TIMING. LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY.

ROA 77/60/82 536 (50 PCT EARLY..LESS AFT)  BCB 73/59/78 547
LYH 76/59/81 436  BLF 73/59/78 557
DAN 81/64/84 445

JJ

BCB 73/59/78 547