Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
245 PM EST THU JUN 4 1998

DISCUSSION...
STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE SHRWS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSRA MVG IN
FOR MOST OF AREA AND SVR THREAT IN XTRM SRN PART OF OUR CWA THIS EVE
IS VERY MINIMAL.  HOWEVER S/WV COULD STILL TRIGGER PLENTY OF
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. ETA/NGM BOTH MISSING LOTS
OF 12Z DATA AND NOT SURE HOW TRUSTWORTHY THEY ARE...AVN PRBLY THE MDL
TO GO WITH. NOT MUCH DSGRMNT 1ST 24 HRS ANYWAY WITH FRNT STILL
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DFNRCS BY FRI
NITE AND SAT. NICE TO SEE ETA IN GNRL AGRMNT WITH AVN ON PUSHING
FRONT WELL TO SOUTH BY SAT MRNG.

THE 1ST 24 HRS...FRONT REMAINS OVR NC AND WITH S/WV ENERGY AT LEAST
THRU THE FIRST PART OF TONITE SHOULD KEEP HIGH CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
OVR SRN HALF OF CWA.  FRTHR NORTH ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCT TONITE
THRU FRI BUT LOOKS LIKE WEAK UVV WILL REMAIN AND STRNG WRLY ADVECTION
OF ANY ACTIVITY IN OHIO VALLEY WILL NOT LET ANY OF OUR CWA OUT OF THE
WOODS. OF COURSE...THE CLOSER TO THE FRNT THE BETTER CHCS.

BY FRI NITE AND SAT WILL GO WITH ETA/AVN SOLN AND BEGIN TO DRY
THINGS OUT...ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND STBL DESPITE A
LTL MORE SUN. SOME LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR SO JUST AN ISSUE OF WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE AND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE. 850 FLOW GOES NW AND UPSLOPE
AREA OF WV WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS...BUT EXCPT CONSIDERABLE SUN
ELSWHERE AT LEAST BY LATER HALF OF SAT.

MOS NUMBERS A BIT TOO COOL FRI BUT MAYBE RSBL FOR SAT...FOR THE WRONG
REASONS THOUGH.

ROA 60/71/56/73 6631
LYH 60/71/57/74 6531
DAN 64/75/60/78 7752
RNK 57/68/53/71 7741
BLF 57/66/51/69 7741

KEIGHTON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-050350-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1211 PM EDT THU JUN 4 1998

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA - NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND WHICH IS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO TRIGGER
STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AN AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARION
TO MARTINSVILLE TO SOUTH BOSTON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL.  IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED SEVERE STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MAY CAUSE
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

KEIGHTON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-050350-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1211 PM EDT THU JUN 4 1998

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA - NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND WHICH IS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO TRIGGER
STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THEREFORE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AN AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARION
TO MARTINSVILLE TO SOUTH BOSTON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL.  IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED SEVERE STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND MAY CAUSE
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

KEIGHTON

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 1998

TIME (EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

730 PM     MAX MEADOWS               VA   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/03/98   WYTHE                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

TW

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 1998

TIME (EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

730 PM     MAX MEADOWS               VA   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/03/98   WYTHE                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

TW