Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ATTM RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES IN
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND IN GREENBRIER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA TO 14
INCHES IN WEST JEFFERSON IN ASHE COUNTY NC. SPOTTER IN WEST
JEFFERSON SAID HE HAS NEVER SEEN IT SNOW AS HARD AS IT IS SNOWING
NOW. SEE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR LATEST AMOUNTS.

SFC LOW IN ERN SC ABOUT 3 HOURS AHD OF FCST BY NGM AND ETA MDLS.
THINK ETA TRACKS LOW TOO FAR INLAND AND PREFER TRACK OF NGM MDL
ACROSS SE NC BEFORE GOING OUT TO SEA. 18Z SOUNDING HERE INDICATES A
GOOD SNOW SOUNDING AND THINKING HERE IS THAT SNOW WL PREVAIL IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN A FEW AREAS AND THE PCPN MIGHT GO TO RAIN FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...PCPN
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

IN THE COUNTIES OF WILKES...SURRY...PATRICK...FRANKLIN...BEDFORD AND
AMHERST...LOW ELEVATIONS TO GET MAINLY RAIN WITH SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 4 PM...NGM FCSTS NEARLY AN INCH OF LIQUID HERE IN BCB WITH AVN
AROUND 1.35 AND ETA WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THINK ETA MDL IS TOO HIGH
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WELL OVER AN INCH LIQUID AFTER 4
PM. SAT PICTS SHOWG GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION POINTING
AT OUR CWA. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SE OF OUT AREA...FEEL
PCPN TO CONT MOST OF TONIGHT. LESS PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOUNTAINS
OF NW NC...COMPARED TO SW VA...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 5 TO 10
INCHES AFTER 4 PM IN THAT AREA...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SW VA...EXPECT ANOTHER 8 TO 14 INCHES AFTER 4 PM WITH
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
TOTALS FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY. TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES IN SOUTHERN SHEND VALLEY. IN SE WV...ANOTHER 6 TO 10 INCHES
WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES.

AS A RESULT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BORDER COUNTIES
FROM WILKES NC TO AMHERST VA...OR MAY BE HANDLED WITH WARNINGS FOR
ELEVTIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

WITH ALL THIS SNOW AROUND...FEEL MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BE
HELD DOWN ON WED AND THUR.

FIRST GUESS NMBRS:
ROA 32/44/30/51 +200
LYH 32/46/31/54 +200
DAN 33/50/30/57 +200
BCB 29/39/28/43 +200
BLF 27/40/30/44 +200
BOO 27/37/27/40 +200
WLK 33/46/31/55 +100

MTE

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-280630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWESTERN VIGINIA
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ABOVE 1000 FEET FOR
THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES OF PATRICK...FRANKLIN...BEDFORD AND AMHERST...

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES.  SNOW
FALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
WARNING AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

IN THE FOOTHILL COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA SNOW WILL ALSO FALL AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  WITH SNOW
FALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES.

VERY LATE TONIGHT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12
INCHES ABOVE 1000 FEET JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A GENERAL TO 6
TO 12 INCHES IN THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...WITH
UP TO 16 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  1 TO 2 FEET TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...INCLUDING THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA 10 TO 16 INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE.

IF YOU ARE OUT ON THE ROADS...YOU WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS WHERE BRIEF WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED.  TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH SNOW PACKED ROADS.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-280630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWESTERN VIGINIA
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD...

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ABOVE 1000 FEET FOR
THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES OF PATRICK...FRANKLIN...BEDFORD AND AMHERST...

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES.  SNOW
FALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
WARNING AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

IN THE FOOTHILL COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA SNOW WILL ALSO FALL AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  WITH SNOW
FALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES.

VERY LATE TONIGHT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12
INCHES ABOVE 1000 FEET JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...A GENERAL TO 6
TO 12 INCHES IN THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...WITH
UP TO 16 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  1 TO 2 FEET TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...INCLUDING THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA 10 TO 16 INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE.

IF YOU ARE OUT ON THE ROADS...YOU WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS WHERE BRIEF WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED.  TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH SNOW PACKED ROADS.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280705-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

RAIN...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OF EARLIER...THE
GROUND HAS BECOME SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES DURING THE EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE FLOODING OF
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.  ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME FLOODED IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 1000
FEET.  PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ALSO.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280705-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

RAIN...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OF EARLIER...THE
GROUND HAS BECOME SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES DURING THE EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE FLOODING OF
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.  ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME FLOODED IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 1000
FEET.  PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ALSO.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280705-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

RAIN...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OF EARLIER...THE
GROUND HAS BECOME SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES DURING THE EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE FLOODING OF
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.  ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME FLOODED IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 1000
FEET.  PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ALSO.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO G4REAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280705-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EST TUE JAN 27 1998

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

RAIN...VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT.  WITH THE HEAVY RAIN OF EARLIER...THE
GROUND HAS BECOME SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES DURING THE EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE FLOODING OF
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.  ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME FLOODED IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AND IN THE FOOTHILLS BELOW 1000
FEET.  PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ALSO.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO G4REAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

NOGUEIRA