Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 PM EST THU JAN 15 1998

WHAT A MESS.  RUNNING WAY BEHIND SO WILL CALL FOR MOST OF
COORDINATION.

RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING PLENTY OF PRECIP STILL MVG UP FROM
SW...AREA IN TENN BIGGEST SHORT TERM CONCERN BUT MDLS SHOW THIS S/WV
ENERGY WEAKENING WHILE FOCUS SHIFTS MORE EAST WITH DVLPG LOW ALONG
CST...AND SATL ENHANCEMENT STARTING TO OCCUR OVR WRN S. CAROLINA BUT
PROGGED TO BE SE OF OUR CWA THRU THE NIGHT.  ONCE CONCERN IS NOW
THAT TEMPS ARE GETTING ABV FRZG AND SOME OF ICE IS ALREADY
MELTING...MORE RAIN MVG IN TONIGHT WILL INCRS ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL
ALONG MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING FFA INTO
TONIGHT FOR VA ZONES.

BEYOND TONITE LIKE ETA BEST OVERALL IN TRENDING MORE TOWARD PREV RUN
OF NGM WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING MORE ALONG CST VS
INLAND. ALSO ETA VERT MOTIONS THROUGHOUT TDY IN BEST AGRMNT WITH HVST
PRECIP AREAS...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN NGM.  NGM SHOWS
STRONGER UVV MAX WITH S/WV FRI BUT MOST ENERGY WILL MV TO SOUTH OF
CWA WITH DIGGING S/WV.  SUGGEST LKLY POPS EARLY FRI BUT DOWNSLOPE
WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT DAY AND TAPER THINGS OFF CONSIDERABLY.  AVN
OVERDOING MSTR AND POPS FOR FRI.  AVN ALSO A LTL TOO WARM WITH SAT
TEMPS AND NGM MOS A LTL TOO COLD WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE.

ROA 34/41/32/42 9732
LYH 32/39/32/43 9632
DAN 35/44/34/45 9632
BLF 34/37/27/34 9744
RNK 32/39/29/37 9733

KEIGHTON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-152130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1130 AM EST THU JAN 15 1998

...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

....THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED FOR MERCER AND SUMMERS
COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA...TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST THE WARNING AREA WITH
SOME ICING CONTINUING.  IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINA THOUGH THE ICING HAS
BECOME MORE PATCHY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE INCHED TOWARD AND IN SOME
PLACES ABOVE FREEZING.

FROM THE VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
...THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS WEST VIRGINIAS GREENBRIER VALLEY... ICING
WILL BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES
EVERWHERE THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD TOWARD FREEZING
...AND EVEN CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH JUST RAIN...HOWEVER SOME LOWER SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND FREEZING WITH LIGHT ICING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1130 AM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAD
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OUTAGES HAD
BEEN INDICATED.

NOGUEIRA

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-152130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1130 AM EST THU JAN 15 1998

...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

....THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED FOR MERCER AND SUMMERS
COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA...TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MOST THE WARNING AREA WITH
SOME ICING CONTINUING.  IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINA THOUGH THE ICING HAS
BECOME MORE PATCHY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE INCHED TOWARD AND IN SOME
PLACES ABOVE FREEZING.

FROM THE VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
...THE ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS...THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS WEST VIRGINIAS GREENBRIER VALLEY... ICING
WILL BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES
EVERWHERE THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD TOWARD FREEZING
...AND EVEN CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH JUST RAIN...HOWEVER SOME LOWER SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND FREEZING WITH LIGHT ICING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1130 AM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAD
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT NO WIDESPREAD OUTAGES HAD
BEEN INDICATED.

NOGUEIRA

VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ044-045-152200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EST THU JAN 15 1998

...WINTER STORMS WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OR
   ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVERNIGHT...NO
ADDITIONAL ICING IS EXPECTED.

SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON TREES AND POWER LINES
HOWEVER...WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
ICE. SOME SLICK SPOTS ON WALKWAYS AND SECONDARY ROADS MAY STILL BE
AROUND.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING...HOURS THEN TAPER OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BY
MIDNIGHT.

JDS