Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
210 PM MDT THU JUL 9 1998

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER SRN CO ABOUT AS HIGH AS
THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.1 TO
1.4 INCHES.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING S/WV APPROACHING FROM WRN NM WHILE
DRY PUNCH HAS INVADED SE CORNER OF THE STATE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.  THE SE PLAINS/FTHLLS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUD FREE
TODAY THAN PAST FEW DAYS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY.  HEALTHY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN FTHLLS FROM
WALSENBURG TO TAD AND ALSO OVER THE RAMPART RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY PERSISTENT POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MTNS FROM COS SWRD TO TAD.  WITH
FAIRLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT STEERING WINDS ALOFT AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...WILL INCLUDE NRL EL PASO COUNTY IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS EVENING AFTER COORDINATION WITH DENVER.  WILL CONTINUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SE COUNTIES TONIGHT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED
DDC SOUNDING FOR FAR SE PLAINS SHOWS THE SE PLAINS STILL CAPPED.
THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING POSITIVE THIS EVENING.  WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S STILL BELIEVE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND DEVELOP EWRD INTO REST
OF THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING.  ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND BACA COUNTY
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO THE GROUND IS LIKELY NEAR
SATURATION.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING LATE.  SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL WITH WET BULB ZEROS
ABOVE 90l00 FEET.  BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH INITIAL CONVECTION OVER
FAR SE WITH DRYING ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THERE.   SR

COZ060>081-100600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1050 AM MDT THU JUL 9 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT.  THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  IN ADDITION...RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAVE SATURATED THE SOIL
AND THEREFORE INCREASED THE RISK OF RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING
...MAINLY OVER LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES.
THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
THIS AREA.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR MORE A MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE...COLORADO REMAINS IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND SPOTTERS WITH RAIN GAGES ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE RELAYED TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THROUGH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...IF
NECESSARY.