Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
145 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 1998

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT CENTERS ON CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND MINIMUM TEMPS ON THE PLAINS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  AT 1800 UTC THE WAVE
APPEARED TO BE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL COLORADO ROCKIES TO
THE PLAINS OF MONTANA.  THE GREATEST INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT WAS OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WHICH
WAS ALSO WHERE LIGHTNING WAS BEING DETECTED.  THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIR (HIGHEST THETA-E) BELOW 700 MB WAS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO.

THUS...AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT.  A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL ALSO HELP PRODUCE SHALLOW
UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS...OR AT LEAST DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT...BUT THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED (EASTERN SAN
JUANS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY).

LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SET IN
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...AND UPSLOPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE DIURNAL DRAINAGE CYCLE TRIES TO KICK IN.
THUS...CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP FOR A PERIOD ON THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL.  THUS...FWC MINIMUM TEMPS
LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM ON THE PLAINS.  FWC POPS ARE A BIT HIGH AS
WELL CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-150600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1145 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING INTO COLORADO FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THIS EVENING.

SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BUILD
STRONG STORMS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLING...
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL TO ACCOMPANY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...AND WIND
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 40 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

HAYNES