Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 AM MDT THU OCT 1 1998

MOIST 1ST DAY OF OCTOBER MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING 1ST PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.  CWFA CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

A WET 18 TO 24 HOURS IS ON TAP DUE TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SUBTROPICAL TAP INTO REGION WITH 00Z THURSDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 150% TO 200% OF NORMAL.  THIS COMBINED
WITH:

1.) A SURFACE HIGH WHICH AT 06Z THURSDAY WAS PUSHING INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND BY 21Z THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER IOWA
ALLOWING UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE AS WELL AS

2.)  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LOW IS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE EAST...I.E. AT 00Z
THURSDAY UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE AT 08Z UPPER
LOW WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WITH LATEST ETA GUIDANCE
INDICATING THAT UPPER LOW TO ROTATE ACROSS CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE LIFT INDICATED BY MODELS.

00Z THURSDAY MM5 INDICATES THAT HEAVIEST POPS MAY HOLD OFF FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BUT WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
REASONING WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 10000 DURING
1ST PERIOD.  WILL CUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY OR TWO
AND GO ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS.

"77"

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...ADDITIONAL REPORT FROM 9/30...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
858 AM MDT THU OCT 01 1998

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    PRITCHETT                 CO    1 INCH HAIL
09/30/98   BACA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...ADDITIONAL REPORT FROM 9/30...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
858 AM MDT THU OCT 01 1998

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    PRITCHETT                 CO    1 INCH HAIL
09/30/98   BACA

COZ060>081-020600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
NOON MDT THU OCT 1 1998

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST...

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVED INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS MORNING AND WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE SNOW WILL NOT BE
A MAJOR FACTOR EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST.

MEANWHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PROVIDED AN EASTERLY...UPSLOPE WIND
PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS FOG AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW IN UTAH MOVES ACROSS
THIS REGION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THAT MAY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
OTERO...BENT...PROWERS...KIOWA...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES.  WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FOR THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS.

FORTUNE

COZ060>081-020600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
NOON MDT THU OCT 1 1998

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST...

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVED INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS MORNING AND WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE SNOW WILL NOT BE
A MAJOR FACTOR EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST.

MEANWHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PROVIDED AN EASTERLY...UPSLOPE WIND
PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS FOG AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW IN UTAH MOVES ACROSS
THIS REGION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THAT MAY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
OTERO...BENT...PROWERS...KIOWA...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES.  WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FOR THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS.

FORTUNE