Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT MON AUG 24 1998

THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...HOWEVER...
A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND
SURFACE WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AS A SHALLOW
SURGE OF COOL AIR MAKES ITS WAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER NEBRASKA AND WYOMING THIS MORNING.

RAPID HEATING ON THE EAST SLOPES AND ADJOINING PLAINS THIS
MORNING RESULTED IN CONVECTION FIRING BEFORE NOON ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES...WITH A FEW OF THE CELLS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH EL PASO
AND PUEBLO COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PLAINS EAST OF
I-25 SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH COOL ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND
CIRRUS BLOWOFF STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IS AVAILABLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES AND ADJOINING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR
DECREASING NEGATIVE BUOYANCY AS LOW LEVEL AIR COOLS AND MOISTENS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS
RELATIVELY DEEP AND WINDS ALOFT LIGHT.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD
DIE DOWN AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT WITH NO APPARENT UPPER DYNAMICS TO
DRIVE IT.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT DUE TO A MOXISTER AIRMASS.

FWC GENERALLY LOOKS OKAY ON THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-250600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT MON AUG 24 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA    BACA     BENT         CHAFFEE  CONEJOS
COSTILLA   CROWLEY  CUSTER       EL PASO  FREMONT
HUERFANO   KIOWA    LAS ANIMAS   MINERAL  OTERO
PROWERS    PUEBLO   RIO GRANDE   SAGUACHE TELLER

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND IT WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WESTWARD.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING
ONTO THE ADJOINING PLAINS.  THE AIR IN THIS AREA WILL BE DRIER AT
THE LOWER LEVELS SO THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE...THEN LESS WIND
AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

HAYNES

COZ060>081-250600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT MON AUG 24 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA    BACA     BENT         CHAFFEE  CONEJOS
COSTILLA   CROWLEY  CUSTER       EL PASO  FREMONT
HUERFANO   KIOWA    LAS ANIMAS   MINERAL  OTERO
PROWERS    PUEBLO   RIO GRANDE   SAGUACHE TELLER

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND IT WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WESTWARD.

THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING
ONTO THE ADJOINING PLAINS.  THE AIR IN THIS AREA WILL BE DRIER AT
THE LOWER LEVELS SO THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE...THEN LESS WIND
AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

HAYNES