Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Pocatello, ID

EASTERN IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
215 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 1998

MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. THE AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO MORE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY WETTER STORMS.
IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING TROF IS INCREASING THE SHEAR WHICH IS
LEADING TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT
STORMS.  DAYTIME HEATING NOW IN FULL SWING WITH SHOWERS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING SOUTHCENTRAL HIGHLANDS.  BOTTOM LINE...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EARLY THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE.  REGARDING APPROACHING
TROF...ETA HAS BEEN PERFORMING EXTREMELY POORLY LATELY AND CONTINUES
MUCH TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.  WILL FOLLOW AVN WHICH SWINGS
SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR ENERGY INTO EASTERN IDAHO LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY.  WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OTHER DYNAMIC
FORCING...A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO
SATURDAY WITH A DRYER AND COOLER AIR MASS FLOODING INTO EASTERN IDAHO
IN THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST IN THE
EASTERN TERRAIN FOR SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING.  FOR THE SECOND DAY IN
A ROW THE LONG RANGE MRF BUILD A VERY HEALTHY AND HOT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.  BAUCK
.WSR88D KSFX OPERATIONAL...VCP21.

IDA BU 058/081 047/082 048 03531
PIH BU 059/083 051/085 051 03521