Tornado Warning 58, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

...ROUGH EVENING WEATHER AHEAD...
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE ALSO CONTINUE FFW....

STRONG STORM PARAMTERS ARE INDICATED WITH THE ETA MODEL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS FA.  14/17Z ADAP DATA VERIFIES THIS SOLUTION
WITH STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...LI'S...CAP STRENGTH...ET AL.
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING EAST THROUGH MISSOURI.

ETA MODEL STABILIZES ATMOSHPERE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI (EARLY EVENING) AND FINALLY
SOUTHWEST INDIANA/WEST KENTUCKY UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PREFER
SOME TYPE OF CATEGORICAL WORDING REFLECTING THIS TIMING.

ALSO WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG)...WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE FFW
FOR FORECAST AREA (FA).  SEMO COUNTIES AWAY FROM MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE
THE BEST BET TO BE EXEMPTED FROM FF DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER FFG NUMBERS
AND BETTER CHANCE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THOSE SPOTS BY ZONE VALID TIME.

CHANCE POPS IN ZONE TOMORROW ARE OK.  ETA LI'S REMAIN HIGH AND VORTICITY
IS STRONGER ACROSS FA THAN WITH THIS IMMEDIATE WAVE.  LIMITING FACTORS
INCLUDE...DRY AIR INFILTRATES INTO REGION (ESPECIALLY SOUTH 1/2 OF FA)
WITH MID TROP WARMING NOTED ALSO ON UPSTREAM 14/12Z SOUNDINGS.

FAN VALUES APPEAR TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.  FAN/FWC CLOSE FOR
TONIGHT...IN THE MID 60S.  WITH MORE CLOUDS LIKELY IN NORTH 1/2 OF FA
(10-85H MEAN RH ABOVE 70%)...LIKE 75 TO 80.  80 TO~ 85 GOOD FOR SOUTH
1/2 OF FA.

PAUL W

ILZ075>078-080>094-141630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1058 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 1998

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WATCH HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH RE-DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JK

ILZ075>078-080>094-141630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1058 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 1998

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WATCH HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH RE-DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JK

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-151200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 1998

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - VALID UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
NOON CDT SUN JUN 14 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
TONIGHT...

FOR THE 2ND TIME IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION IS SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE LATE MORNING SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS OR STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

INSTABILITY VALUES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL OVERNIGHT.  THIS FAVORS
A CHANGE IN STORM TYPES TO BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

ALSO...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  WITH THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...RAINFALL RATES AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE AREA ALSO.

EXPECTED STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.  SPOTTERS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST
KENTUCKY AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI IN A HIGH RISK AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER.  A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

TPAH