Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT MON AUG 10 1998

PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/TUESDAY MAIN TOPIC TODAY.  SECONDARY TOPICS
ARE FOG CHANCES AND TEMPS.

WHERE MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN RATHER CLOSE IN THEIR OVERALL
SOLUTIONS OF LATE...THEY HAVE NOW PARTED COMPANY.  ETA HAS A SLOWER
SOLUTION AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING PLAINS S/W AFTER 24 HRS (WHICH
IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN NGM AND AVN). ETA DEVELOPS COMMA
CLOUD/SMALL H5 CUTOFF VICINITY KPAH BY 36-48 HRS. NGM AND AVN MUCH
MORE MELLOW WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...PREFERRING TO TRACK S/W FURTHER
SOUTH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE. RESULTING QPF FROM NGM IS CONCENTRATED
OVER ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWARD...WHILE ETA SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH NW TENN/W KY TUESDAY THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT.

KEY TO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT APPEARS TO BE S/W OVER PLAINS AND DRY
SLUG OVER WESTERN GT LAKES REGION.  OVERLAYING VIA AWIPS SHOWS THAT
MODELS ALL SIMILAR AT INITIALIZATION...ETA PERHAPS A LITTLE CLOSER
THAN OTHERS AT TIME 0 AND 6. HOWEVER...THINK ETA MAY BE OVERDOING
STRENGTH OF S/W AFTER 24 HRS AND PREFER TO SUGGEST A COMPROMISE.
NGM BRINGS FRONT THRU EVV-PAH BY 12-15Z TUESDAY. ETA HOLDS FRONT
BACK UNTIL S/W PASSES...NOT BRINGING IT THRU PAH-EVV UNTIL AFTER
DARK TUESDAY NIGHT.  COMPROMISE HERE AS WELL...WITH FRONT ARRIVING
OVER NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THEN HOLDING OFF FOR SOUTH SECTION TIL
AFTERNOON.  LIKELY POPS SEMO...CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

FOG WAS QUITE PATCHY THIS MORNING.  IF TEMPS DROP TO MOS VALUES
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE FOG EPISODE AGAIN BASED ON CURRENT
DEWPOINTS. AGAIN THINK IT WILL BE PATCHY GF. SEMO MAY BE EXCEPTION
IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARRIVE SO WILL ONLY SUGGEST FOR EASTERNMOST
AREAS.

FWC DOING BETTER WITH TEMPS...BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD PUT A
DENT IN MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. PROBABLY BEST TO UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPS A
CAT WHERE POPS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST.

SDB