Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 1998

COLD FRONT AND DRY AIR SINKING THROUGH MIDWEST WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
OF TODAYS FORECAST.

AT NOON THE FRONT SEEMED TO BE FROM UIN TO EVV BASED ON SFC MAP/LAPS
DATA. STORMS HAD FORMED ALONG AND CLOSE TO THIS AREA...AND LAPS
INDICATED LIFTED INDICIES TO -10 SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO BE RECKONED WITH WAS A S/W SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING EXTREME
DRY AIR SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS IL/IN NORTH OF FRONT.

THINK THE ETA IS DOING THE BEST JOB REPRESENTING THE WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY. IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION AND QPF SEEMS
DECENT. ETA BRINGS FRONT THROUGH REGION OVERNIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL ACTIVITY DIES OFF AND MISSOURI S/W DRIVES SOUTH INTO TENN.
WILL NEED EVENING POP MOST ZONES...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING MVN
AREA BASED ON MOVEMENT OF CURRENT STORMS/COLD FNT. EXCEPTION ALSO MAY
BE SEMO AND FAR W KY WHERE OVERNIGHT POP MAY BE NEEDED AS STORMS
CLUSTER LATER ON THIS AREA AND PROPAGATE SE.

FWC DID GOOD JOB ON YDAY HIGHS BUT NOT OVERNIGHT LOWS.  FAIRLY WIDE
GAP TODAY BETWEEN FWC/FAN ON HIGHS.  FWC APPARENTLY USING FULL DRY
SUNSHINE TO PUMP UP HIGH TO 93 PAH AND 90 EVV...WHILE FAN MID 80S.
THINK BEST ROUTE WILL BE COMPROMISE.

SDB