Tornado Warning 71, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OK. AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH, THE DRYLINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT, THROUGH LAMAR, CO AT 3 PM, WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, BUT MAY SLOW AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
WAVE APPROACHES OK FROM THE WEST. NONETHELESS, THE DYNAMICALLY
COOLED AIR OVER NORTHEAST CO WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST OK
OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
FARTHER EAST THE FRONT PROGRESSES, THE SLOWER IT WILL MOVE AS
SUPPORTING WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER IN SOUTHEAST OK THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SECOND JET STREAK, MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WILL PUT
SOUTHERN OK IN THE RR QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE, ENHANCING THE LIFT
SUPPLIED BY THE FRONT.

WITH WESTERN OK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AND THE NORTHEAT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, THAT PART OF THE STATE SHOULD
STAY FREE OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 9
OKC   65  73  55  70 /  80  60  20   0
HBR   60  75  50  73 /  30  20   0   0
SPS   70  80  57  77 /  30  40   0   0
GAG   54  66  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
PNC   60  68  50  68 / 100  40   0   0
DUA   69  78  61  77 /  30  70   40  0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-042100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO WATONGA TO NORMAN TO
HOLDENVILLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
FAR WESTERN TEXAS WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE TRANSPORTING
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE MOVING INTO
WESTERN...AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOOON AS IT MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPERE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM UP QUICKLY ENOUGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BEFORE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP HERE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
APROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

JAMES

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-042100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO WATONGA TO NORMAN TO
HOLDENVILLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
FAR WESTERN TEXAS WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE TRANSPORTING
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE MOVING INTO
WESTERN...AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOOON AS IT MOVES EAST. STRONG WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPERE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM UP QUICKLY ENOUGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BEFORE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE EAST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP HERE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
APROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

JAMES

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT SUN OCT  4 1998

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0224 PM    5 NE SHARON               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   WOODWARD

0307 PM    19 NW CHESTER             OK   2.00 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   MAJOR/WOODWARD COUNTY LINE

MCCLURE