Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 061933
AFDOKC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT MON APR 6 1998

THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WAS CENTERED NEAR ELP AT MID-AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL OK BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REFER TO WATCH PRODUCTS AND
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

BOTH THE AVN AND ETA DEVELOP A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW
CENTER OVER EASTERN KS OR MO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT COULD ALSO
KEEP EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL OK IN THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ZONES FOR THAT PART OF THE STATE. WINDS
SHOULD DIE DOWN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND APPEARS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, THE LOCATION OF THE JET MAY KEEP CIRRUS CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE END OF THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 9
OKC   48  72  44  70 /  70   0   0   0
HBR   48  74  44  72 /  60   0   0   0
SPS   48  74  44  72 /  60   0   0   0
GAG   43  70  40  66 /  40   0   0  20
PNC   47  67  44  67 /  70   0   0  20
DUA   52  75  47  73 /  80  30   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO
WEST TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING... RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST. MEANWHILE A DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE
UPPER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES INTO EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AROUND MIDAFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING... LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET.

AT THIS TIME... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... IF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED OR MAY NOT EVEN
HAPPEN AT ALL. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP... WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON APR 6 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO
WEST TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING... RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST. MEANWHILE A DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE
UPPER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRY LINE AS IT MOVES INTO EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AROUND MIDAFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING... LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET.

AT THIS TIME... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... IF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED OR MAY NOT EVEN
HAPPEN AT ALL. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP... WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.