Severe Thunderstorm Warning 603, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CST MON NOV 9 1998

MAJOR EARLY WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  AS OF 21Z...SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO FINALLY BE ON
THE MOVE WITH THE LOWEST PRESSURES OBSERVED NEAR KDDC.  CONCERNS FOR
THE TONITE PERIOD ARE WINDS AND TSTORM CHANCES.  HAVE OPTED NOT TO
REISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST.  WINDS MAY
MEET CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO..BUT THE WEDGE BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND DRY LINE WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WILL BECOME
EVER MORE NARROW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING OF VERY HIGH MOMENTUM AIR SHUD ALSO HELP WINDS COME DOWN
UNDER ADV CRITERIA.  ATTM FEEL THIS WILL BE BEST COVERED WITH SHORT
TERM FORECASTS.

RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA
TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE ERN ZONES
THIS EVENING.  MODIFICATION OF 18Z OUN SOUNDING TO CONDITIONS
PRESENT IN CENTRAL AND SW ZONES REVEALS THE CAP IS PERILOUSLY CLOSE
TO BUSTING..AND SHUD HAVE NO TROUBLE DOING SO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF FRONT/DRYLINE.  TOUGH CALL ON INITIATION AXIS..AND WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS EVENING OUT
WEST.  CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EAST WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT..WHICH SHUD PUSH
FRONT THRU SERN ZONES BY AROUND 9-10Z.  HOWEVER..BOMB OUT LOW IS
STRONG ENUF TO WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND INTO NW OK OVERNIGHT TONITE
AND WITH PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES AND 850 TEMPS DIVING TO -2
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN NW ZONES OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE OUT PERIODS...CLEAR AND CALM NITE ON TUESDAY MAY LEAD TO THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE.  RETURN FLOW COMMENCES RAPIDLY ON WED.
SYSTEM FOR FRI/FRI NITE BEARS WATCHING AS WELL WITH THE POSSIBILTY
OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS..AND IT MAY BE COLD ENUF FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIP IN THE NW..BUT WAY TO EARLY TO CALL ATTM.
 MILLER

FCSTID = 21
OKC   41  53  34  56 /  50   0   0   0
HBR   38  53  31  56 /  30   0   0   0
SPS   45  57  34  63 /  30   0   0   0
GAG   34  48  31  55 /  30   0   0   0
PNC   40  50  30  55 /  50   0   0   0
DUA   46  59  33  59 /  60   0   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

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