Severe Thunderstorm Warning 515, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 212051
AFDOKC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

EVOLUTION OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PANHANDLES AND RESULTING IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME AROUND. AIR BEHIND FRONT
IS THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH 50S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FALL COLD FRONTS...PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND TRENDS IN RUC OVER PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...BELIEVE FRONT WILL PROGRESS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
SUGGESTED BY THE ETA.

BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF FRONT AND CLOUDS THUS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ERROR AND LATER UPDATES.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THIS EVENING WHERE HIGH CAPES MEETS OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  ..16..

PRELIM NUMBERS...
FCSTID = 16
OKC   68  85  63  82 /  30  30  20  20
HBR   69  93  65  92 /  20  20  20  20
SPS   69  93  65  92 /  20  20  20  20
GAG   57  68  56  78 /  30  20  20  20
PNC   61  76  64  80 /  50  30  20  20
DUA   71  94  67  89 /  20  20  20  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

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OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... NORTH OF A LINE FROM ERICK TO
WATONGA TO GUTHRIE TO CUSHING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT.

DISCUSSION... AT MIDDAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN
KANSAS LAST NIGHT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM JUST NORTH
OF CHEYENNE TO NORTH OF WATONGA TO SOUTH OF STILLWATER.
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING HAVE REINFORCED THIS
BOUNDARY AND MAY MOVE IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY... SOUTH WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MOVING INTO THE BOUNDARY...
WHILE CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR DESTABILIZES... AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATELY
STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK...
BUT A COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... BUT THE THREAT WILL SHIFT MORE TO
HEAVY RAIN BY MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
AFTER DARK.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

24

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED WIND SPEED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    5 SE NEWKIRK              OK   51 MPH WIND GUST
09/21/98   KAY                            OKLAHOMA MESONETWORK

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    5 SE NEWKIRK              OK   59 MPH WIND GUST
09/21/98   KAY                            OKLAHOMA MESONETWORK

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED WIND SPEED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1998

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    5 SE NEWKIRK              OK   51 MPH WIND GUST
09/21/98   KAY                            OKLAHOMA MESONETWORK

FM