Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 182100
AFDOKC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP WELL ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR KSWO TO KTIK TO KFDR. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MAY BE UNDERWAY IN LINCOLN/ERN PAYNE COUNTY AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KTLX. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THEY GO SEVERE IN OUR AREA OR WAIT UNTIL THEY GET INTO THE TULSA
CWA.

THICKER AREA OF CU AND WEAK ECHOES ARE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER THE
WICHITA FALLS AREA. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BATTLE CAP A BIT
LONGER BEFORE STORMS START FIRING IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...THINK THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E CNTRL ZONES TONIGHT AS CAP
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

FOR THE ZONES WILL KEEP POPS NEAR AND EAST OF CURRENT FRONTAL
POSITION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION WHERE FRONT WILL
STALL AND WASH OUT...THEY ALL AGREE THAT IT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE KIND OF SQUIRRELLY
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEE TROF DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BRINGING SLY FLOW AREAWIDE. WILL CARRY LOW POPS
TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM
TONIGHT...AND WILL ALSO CARRY LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE.

EXTENDED MODELS SHOW CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRASTIC CHANGES IN NOGAPS 850 TEMPS WITH LATEST
RUN...SO WILL NOT CHANGE TEMPS TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FCSTID = 17/MMT
OKC   70  95  72  96 /  20  10  20  20
HBR   65  99  73 100 /   0  20  20  20
SPS   72  97  74  99 /  20  20  20  20
GAG   58  95  67  97 /   0  20  20  20
PNC   68  95  72  97 /  10  10  20  20
DUA   75  92  76  95 /  40  20  20  20

.OUN...
OK...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM ZONES 20-26-28>32.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM PERRY TO EL RENO TO CHICKASHA TO DUNCAN.  OVERNIGHT THE SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TECUMSEH TO ARDMORE.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY TO JUST WEST OF
EL RENO TO JUST EAST OF LAWTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT SHOULD BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF A TECUMSEH TO ARDMORE LINE BY
LATE EVENING.  ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S ARE PROVIDING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING TO ALLOW THE CAP TO BREAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF THEM MAY BECOME SEVERE.  VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...BUT THE POSSIBLILTY OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
 MILLER

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM PERRY TO EL RENO TO CHICKASHA TO DUNCAN.  OVERNIGHT THE SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TECUMSEH TO ARDMORE.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY TO JUST WEST OF
EL RENO TO JUST EAST OF LAWTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT SHOULD BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF A TECUMSEH TO ARDMORE LINE BY
LATE EVENING.  ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S ARE PROVIDING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING TO ALLOW THE CAP TO BREAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF THEM MAY BECOME SEVERE.  VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...BUT THE POSSIBLILTY OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
 MILLER