Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 092026
AFDOKC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 1998

SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  WE EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM
STRETCHED FROM NEAR STILLWATER TO ALTUS.  UPPER FLOW IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
TRAINING STORMS.  HAVE CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AM NOT QUITE SATISFIED THAT WE CAN REACH GUIDANCE LEVELS
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA TONIGHT.  FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHER
TOMORROW EVENING...ONCE THE GROUND IS MORE SATURATED AFTER THE
STORMS TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE OVER US TONIGHT...IT
APPEARS THAT SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
WILL LIKELY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.  MORE
IMPORTANTLY...LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM DAILY CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE
SEEMINGLY RANDOM FAVORED AREAS FOR MORE CONVECTION.  AM GUESSING
THAT THE MAIN BOUNDARY TOMORROW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN OUTFLOW FROM
THE STORMS TONIGHT.  SO HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTH FOR
TOMORROW.  AFTER THAT...POPS ARE MORE UNIFORM.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY QUITE REASONABLE AND HAVE STRAYED LITTLE
FROM THEM.  INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM FOR
QUITE A WHILE.

HAVE MADE A MINOR CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  MRF SUGGESTS
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...SO UPPED THE POPS
FOR THAT DAY SLIGHTLY.

COORD TUL.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   70  86  71  88 /  70  40  50  30
HBR   66  88  69  90 /  60  40  50  30
SPS   73  92  75  94 /  60  50  50  30
GAG   58  86  63  86 /  40  30  40  20
PNC   70  88  72  85 /  70  30  50  30
DUA   75  85  75  90 /  50  40  40  30

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT TUE JUN  9 1998

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0405 PM    5NW EL RENO               OK   68 MPH WIND GUST
06/08/98   CANADIAN                       MESONET RECORDED WIND GUST

SC

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100030-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS... SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO LAWTON TO
QUANAH.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CUSHING TO RUSH
SPRINGS TO FREDERICK AT MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  IN ADDITION... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WIND SHEAR
PROFILES ARCOSS THE AREA WILL BE WEAKER TODAY... RESULTING IN A
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. NEVERTHELESS... A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING... WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING A
CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS AREA
BEING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE WINDS AND
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM MIDAFTERNOON WELL INTO TONIGHT.

24

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100030-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS... SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO LAWTON TO
QUANAH.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CUSHING TO RUSH
SPRINGS TO FREDERICK AT MIDDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  IN ADDITION... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WIND SHEAR
PROFILES ARCOSS THE AREA WILL BE WEAKER TODAY... RESULTING IN A
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. NEVERTHELESS... A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING... WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING A
CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS AREA
BEING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THE RESULTING UPSLOPE WINDS AND
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM MIDAFTERNOON WELL INTO TONIGHT.

24

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT TUE JUN  9 1998

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    TRUSCOTT                  TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/09/98   KNOX

JS