Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 PM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

LATEST KGWX REFLECTIVITY PICS SHOWS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG LOW LEVEL
BOUNDRY IN AL INTO SW MIDDLE TN. THUS...WOULD NOT DUMP OVERBOARD THE
IDEA THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN
FACT...WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SURGING ACROSS OUR AREA...THERE COULD ALSO
BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

NGM/ETA SIMILAR IN PROGRESSION OF SURFACE LOW TO OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO NE ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. WITH COLD
POOL AND HIGH TT/K VALUES EXPECTED...BELEIVE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE NEEDED FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH
SOME OF THESE STORM REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WOULD ADVISE CAT POPS
OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TN THRU 06Z MON. WOULD RECOMMEND LIKELY POPS
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 06Z MON...LOOK FOR CAA TO PLAY QUITE A ROLE IN CWA WX SCENARIO.
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
30 DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CWA AFTER 18Z ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH AREA. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SET IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DROP THRU THE DAY...LEADING TO A CHILLY MONDAY
NIGHT. TUE WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO REGION. WILL GO CLOSER TO MOS NUMBERS FOR MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

KBNA 40/41/24/39   6200

14
JBW

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-090000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

...FIRST SOME THUNDERSTORMS...

...THEN A TURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER...

YOU CAN EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND THERE IS STILL AT
LEAST A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE (WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS).

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TODAY...AND OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-STATE
BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...A BLAST OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY AND
SEND TEMPERATURES TUMBLING OUT OF THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER: IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS NIGHTTIME LOWS SINK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-090000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

...FIRST SOME THUNDERSTORMS...

...THEN A TURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER...

YOU CAN EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND THERE IS STILL AT
LEAST A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE (WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS).

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TODAY...AND OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-STATE
BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...A BLAST OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY AND
SEND TEMPERATURES TUMBLING OUT OF THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER: IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS NIGHTTIME LOWS SINK INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.