Severe Thunderstorm Warning 379, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 1998

BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA (INCLUDING 15Z RUC) SFC FNT/WND SHIFT
LINE SHOULD BE DEEP INTO MIDDLE TN BY 21Z. HOWEVER, LATEST SFC
MAPS INDICATE FNT IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER, AND MOVING
ONLY SLOWLY SWD. MEANWHILE, TSTMS IN SRN IL AND NR STL ARE LOCATED
BEHIND THE WND SHIFT LINE, AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LAGGING
MOISTURE GRADIENT.

WILL BASE FCST ON THE OBSERVATION THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING
BEST RAIN CHC SWD TOO QUICKLY, AND BLV WK TROF WILL BE INVOF MIDDLE
TN DURING MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE UPCOMING NIGHT. THUS, WOULD
PROBABLY GO A LITTLE HIGHER ON POPS THAN FWC, AND KEEP THEM IN THE
30-40% RANGE TONIGHT.

WOULD BEGIN TRENDING POPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES WEDNESDAY, ON THE
BELIEF THAT CURRENT MODEL FCSTS MAY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH REALITY
BY THEN. THUS, WOULD PROBABLY SHADE POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NORTH.
CURRENT 30% FOR BNA TOMORROW LOOKS REASONABLE, BUT WOULD PROBABLY GO
WITH 40% SOUTH.

WOULD PROBABLY TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN FWC AND
CLOSER TO FAN NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW-LVL FLOW BCMS N-NELY.
MODEL FCST MIN TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

FINALLY, A SPECIAL THANKS TO MEM FCSTR FOR THE HELPFUL
DISCUSSION.

BNA 69/89/69/89 4311             LAWRENCEBURG 70/90/69/90 3411