Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 PM CDT THU JUN 4 1998

MAIN TSTM AREA HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NRN 1/2 OF MIDDLE TN TO
THE SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. KOHX STP INDICATES MAX RAIN TOTALS
BTWN 3 AND 4 INCHES, AND APPEAR TO VERIFY PRETTY WELL WITH GROUND
TRUTH. BNA 6-HR RAIN TOTAL BTWN 12Z AND 18Z WAS 2.74 INCHES.
A TOTAL OF 4.26 INCHES WAS REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF BNA, AT
BELLVUE, AND A 1-HR FROG STRANGLER IN LA VERGNE DROPPED 1.90 INCHES.

SFC FNT HAS WAFFLED BACK TO THE NORTH TDY AND IS CURRENTLY
BACK UP OVER EXTREME SRN KY. WITH UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
SWLY THRU 24 HRS, EXPECT FNT TO REMAIN N OF OUR AREA, WITH MIDDLE
TN STILL PARKED IN A VERY MOIST (PWA'S NEAR 2") AND UNSTABLE
AMS.

EXPECT CURRENT TSTM AREA OVER SRN MIDDLE TN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LOOK FOR A STRENGTHENING A LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET TO DEVELOP OVER WRN MIDDLE
TN LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD WITH TIME, SPREADING HVY RAINS AND
INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL BACK INTO MIDDLE TN LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SVR TSTMS COULD OCCUR AT ANYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, IT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE TOMORROW
AS RIGHT REAR OF UPPER JET POSITIONS ITSELF RIGHT OVER OUR CWA.
A MID-LVL DRY TONGUE NUDGES INTO OUR AREA AS WELL, BY 00Z SATURDAY
(ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SRN AREAS).

BLV MEM HAS DONE A GOOD DEED BY GIVING US AN FFA THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL.

UPPER FLOW IS SLOW TO TURN WNWLY AND BLV WE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHC
IN FCST ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE YESTERDAY'S OPTIMISTIC
AVN RUN (SHOWING FNT MOVING SOUTH OF4 MIDDLE TN BY 00Z SAT) WAS
JUST A PASSING FANCY, AND PLEASANTLY COOL, DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PROBABLY BE POSTPONED FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

BNA 71/79/66/78 8864