Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 AM CST FRI APR 3 1998

WARM FRONT IN NRN AL HAS TRIGGERED TS WHICH ARE MOVING NORTH INTO MID
TN ATTM.  LAST SFC ANAL SHOWED THE LOW ACTUALLY WEAKENED LAST HOUR BUT
THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT-LIVED PHENOMENON. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST THRU CNTRL KY TDY AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT GOES ALONG. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW COULD KEEP THE WARM FRONT FROM TRAVELLING ALL THE
WAY TO THE KY BORDER AND WILL SPELL A GREATER CHC OF WIDESPREAD SVR FOR
SRN COUNTIES.  DWPTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID 60S THRU CNTRL MS
AND AL AND SHOULD BE IN TN BY DAYBREAK.  JET CONFIGURATIONS ARE ALSO
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR AS WE WILL BE IN THE LFQ OF A 120+ KT JET BY
18Z.  AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARND 00Z THE H5 LOW CLOSES IN AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY (NGM DROPS LIS DOWN TO -9).  AS MRX
MENTIONED THE HELICITIES ARE HIGH IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT SO
TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY.

AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFF WINDS WHIP ARND TO THE NW AND MID TN STAYS IN
CYC FLOW ON SAT.  SAT LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY COOL WINDY DAY.  HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE 15 DEGS BLO TDYS NOS.

FWC POPS LOOK REASONABLE TDY BUT TONIGHT COULD GO EITHER WAY.  WILL GO
WITH IT NOW BUT RAIN COULD BE OUT OF THE BNA AND WEST AREAS BY SS.
TEMPS TDY ARE ANOTHER PROBLEM.  THE NRN HALF MAY NOT SEE THE WARM FRONT
MAKE IT THRU AND THERFORE WILL NOT BE AS WARM.  WILL GO WITH FAN HIGHS
ASSUMING WE WILL SEE BREAKS OF SUN AND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IN MOST
AREAS.  LEAN TOWARDS FWC FOR THE OTHER TWO PDS.
SW/12
BNA 69/48/54 +31