Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
130 AM CDT THU APR 16 1998

BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE OF CAP BREAKG OVR MID TN AS SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE CURRENTLY ERUPTED ARD DOVER/CLARKSVILLE VCNTY.  AS NIGHT WEARS
ON...XPCT CNVCTV BNDRY TO SLIDE INTO NRN MID TN THEN GRDLLY DIMINISH AS
S/W CURRENTLY CROSSG MID MS VLY SHEARS OUT OVR GRTLKS.

VERY UNSTBL AND MOIST AMS PROGGED TO LINGER OVR MID-SOUTH TDY AND TNGT.
OUTFLOW BNDRY AND APPROACHG CDFNT WL HELP TO ACT AS FOCUSG MECHANISM
FOR CNVCTN. DUE TO STRENGTH OF MID LVL JET AND WET BULB ZERO BTWN 7-9K
FEET...TSTMS WL BE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WNDS/LARGE HAIL. WOULD
RECOMMEND MENTIONING OF SVR IN FCST TEXT FOR TDY AND EARLY TNGT.

DUE TO OVERALL SLUGGISH MOVMNT OF SFC FNT...XPCT TO SEE PROLONG PERIODS
OF TSTMS WITH HVY RAIN. MOST OF NRN MID TN WL LIKELY BE SOAKED FM
CNVCTV LINE EXPCTD TO MOV INTO RGN BY 8-10Z THUS RUN-OFF PROBLEMS MAY
EXIST LATR TDY/TNGT. AM WILLIING TO LET DAY CREW ISSUE FFA AS AREA MAY
BE MORE DEFINITE BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN FCST
TEXT.
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TEMPS DROP SHARPLY BEHIND BNDRY WHICH SHOULD LIE JUST SE OF BNA BY 12Z.
THUS SHOULD SEE WIDE TEMP VARIANCE 12Z/FRI WITH COLDER TEMPS OVR NW MID
TN. ATTM PREFER TEMPS SLGTLY WRMR THAN FAN GUID. WHILE SFC FNT SLOWLY
MOVS SEWD FRI...MID/UPR LVL TROF WL STILL BE TO OUR W...THUS XPCT OVC
SKIES AND PATCHES OF SHWRS/RA. WOULD GO A CAT COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGH
FRI DUE TO LOW LVL CAA AND OVC SKIES.
09

BNA 75/57/62 785                         COOKEVILLE 74/60/62 687
                LAWRENCEBURG 78/60/63 785