Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

5MA PROFILER DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE OVER WRN TX AND OK HAS AMPLIFIED
AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT ETA ANALYSIS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE
EWD ALONG SFC FNTL BOUNDARY, WHICH IS NOW STALLED OVER TN, AND MOVE WK
SFC REFLECTION INTO SWRN TN BY LATE WED. BASED ON ETA/NGM PCGRIDDS,
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 850MB/300MB CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE.
COUPLET WHICH WILL ENHANCE TSTM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN LATE TDY AND EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT OF TDYS WEATHER, WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SVR
WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

SFC FNT, WHICH WAS PARKED NEAR A MEM-MKL-BNA-CSV LINE, WILL PUSH BACK
TO THE NORTH TO NR TN/KY BORDER AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
THUS, EXPECT SCTD-NUMEROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE TN TDY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT MOVES INTO NRN MIDDLE TN AND
MONITOR FOR FFW POTENTIAL, AS KOHX STP INDICATES MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I-40 GOT BTWN 1/2 AND 1 INCHES OF RAIN DURING MONDAYS EVENT.
<<
WOULD PROBABLY KEEP POPS HIGH TDY, IN THE 50-60% RANGE. ALSO,
BLV WE SHOULD DEFINITELY UP THE POPS FOR TUE EVENING (ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS EAST OF I-65). TEND TO PREFER LOWER POPS FOR WED, AS
LOW LVL FLOW BCMS MORE W-NWLY, AND WOULD PROBABLY LOWER POPS MORE
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK OKAY AND PROBABLY WOULDNT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM
IT.

BNA 82/65/85/63 6521            COOKEVILLE 82/65/85/63 5621

            WINCHESTER 85/67/88/64 5641

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
356 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0840 PM    NASHVILLE                 TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/25/98   DAVIDSON                       ROOF AND SOME BRICKS BLOWN
                                          OFF BUSINESS AT 50TH AND
                                          CHARLOTTE PIKE

0920 PM                              TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/25/98   RUTHERFORD                     WINDOWS BLOWN OUT ON
                                          HOUSEBOAT ON PERCY PRIEST
                                          LAKE.

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-261630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE MID-STATE.

THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON MONDAY.  DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE MANY AREAS
LIKELY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE GROUND
WAS THOROUGHLY SOAKED BY YESTERDAYS RAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO RUN-OFF AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.  THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...TO WAVERLY...NASHVILLE AND SPARTA.  THE WATCH ALSO
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CLARKSVILLE...GALLATIN...LEBANON...AND
COOKEVILLE.

IF YOU LIVE NEAR CREEKS...STREAMS OR OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING...YOU SHOULD LISTEN FOR WEATHER UPDATES TODAY AND
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. THEREFORE...
IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS AND LISTEN FOR ANY WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE ISSUED.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WELL.

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-261630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE MID-STATE.

THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON MONDAY.  DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE MANY AREAS
LIKELY RECEIVED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE GROUND
WAS THOROUGHLY SOAKED BY YESTERDAYS RAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO RUN-OFF AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.  THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...TO WAVERLY...NASHVILLE AND SPARTA.  THE WATCH ALSO
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CLARKSVILLE...GALLATIN...LEBANON...AND
COOKEVILLE.

IF YOU LIVE NEAR CREEKS...STREAMS OR OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLASH FLOODING...YOU SHOULD LISTEN FOR WEATHER UPDATES TODAY AND
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. THEREFORE...
IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS AND LISTEN FOR ANY WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE ISSUED.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WELL.