Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Omaha, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

...MAIN CONCERN...OF COURSE...IS SVR WX THREAT TONIGHT...THEN DEALING
WITH WINDY/SHOWERY WX SUN INTO MON W/ ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE FORECAST
TO DIVE THIS WAY IN NW FLOW...

12Z UAA POINTS TO A RATHER STRONG SYS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. H25
JET WINDS COMING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LO TOP OUT AT 125 KTS WITH 75
KT H5 JET AS WELL. DECENT HGHT FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED W/ SYS W/ 80 GPM
FALLS IN WRN CO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 17Z STILL SHOW A WELL DEFINED SPIN
MOVING THRU WRN CO. AZTEC NM PROFILER SHOWING STRONG WINDS PROGRESSING
EAST W/ 65KTS AT H5 AND 115 IN THE H25/H2 LAYER. MEANWHILE...H85 ANAL
HAD LO PRES IN WY WITH FRONT EXTENDING SE INTO CNTRL KS AND AR. ADEQT
MOISTURE FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS FROM CNTRL KS ON SOUTH. INCREASING LLJ
CONTS TO PUSH THIS INTO NEB AS WELL.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRES...AS ADVERTISED...WAS DEEPENING RAPIDLY INVOF
DNR. ADAP SHOWS PRES FALL BULLSEYE IN SW NEB SUPPORTING A TRACK ACROSS
SRN NEB TONIGHT. WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NE CO/NW KS ESE THRU CNTRL
KS AROUND GBD AND DOWN TO MO/AR BORDER. DWPTS VERY JUICY SOUTH OF FRONT
W/ MID 70S DWPTS JUST STARTING TO CROSS SRN KS BORDER. MID 60S READINGS
INTO CNTRL KS AS OF 17Z. GOOD DRY PUNCH ALSO EVIDENT THRU SW KS INTO TX
PNHDL W/ WSW WINDS AND DWPTS IN THE 40S.

ENOUGH SAID...AS UPPER SYS RACES EAST OUT OF CO AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TO ABOUT NEB/KS BORDER...PLENTY OF SVR WX WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT\
...ESP THRU MIDNIGHT. AFT COORD W/ OMA WILL INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN ERN PARTS OF CWA WHERE GROUND REMAINS PRETTY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS...AND BEST CHC OF WIDESPREAD MOD/HEAVY RAIN EXISTS AS SVR WX
ORGANIZES INTO AN MCS.

EVEN THO PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THRU MON...IT IS PRETTY STRAIGHT
FORWARD. AS THIS CURRENT SYS WINDS UP IN IA...NW FLOW WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING GRADIENT. ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE PROGGED TO DIVE
INTO AREA IN NW FLOW LATE TOMR / TOMR NIGHT. WHILE SVR WX POTENTIAL IS
IN QUESTION...SHRA/TSRA CHCS ARE NOT.

W/ FAN/FWC BOTH HOLDING ONTO POPS INTO MON...SCT POPS WILL LIKELY TO
NEEDED AT LEAST TO COVER AM HRS AS SYS PROGRESSES EAST OUT OF AREA BY
AFTN.

WILL FOCUS POPS OVER NE PARTS OF CWA SUN THRU MON AND TAPER OFF CHCS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST AWAY FROM STRONGEST ENERGY AND MOST ABUNDANT
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

IT WILL FEEL RELATIVELY COOL SUN/MON AS NW WINDS OF 20/30 MPH BOTH
DAYS COUPLE W/ READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. KS AREA WILL LIKELY
TO A FAIR AMT WARMER AS COOLER AIR SHOULD REMAIN TO AREAS WEST OF IA
LOW AS IT WRAPS UP AND EDGES EAST.

GRI NN 058/074/052/075/55 744

GURNEY