Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Omaha, NE

CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
237 AM CDT MON JUN 8 1998

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST.

SFC BNDRY STILL STRETCHED ALONG KS/NE BDR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ABOARD STRONG SRLY
WINDS.  WHILE LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES TO REDVLP OVER
AREA AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...STRONGER CELLS HAVE DVLPD OVER WC KS ON
NOSE OF UPPER JET MAX HAULING IN FROM SW.  PLENTY OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY STILL WAITING TO KICK OUT OF ROCKIES ALONG WITH SFC LOW WHICH
WAS OVER EC COLORADO AT 06Z.

STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ALONG WITH LOW LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR BNDRY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBILITY OF SVR
WX TODAY WITH EAST MOST FAVORED DUE TO TIME OF DAY OF PARAMETERS
COMING TOGETHER.  SPC MDT RISK FROM ERN GID COUNTIES EWD LOOKS GOOD.

ETA APPEARED TO BE DOING WELL WITH DETAILS THUS FAR AND HAVE OPTED
TO FOLLOW THROUGH PERIOD.  WILL KEEP IN CHANCES FOR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND GO WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER SE FA IN MOST UNSTABLE
AIR.  ETA INDICATES CINH TO TAKE OVER AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN TNGT.

TEMPS TRICKY TODAY AND DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD COVER NORTH OF FRONT.
FAN NUMBERS ARE EXTREMELY COOL AND SUSPECT WITH DYNAMICS OF
SITUATION AND DRY PUNCH INTO SW FA TAFTN THAT FWC ALSO TOO COOL FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.  WILL GO WITH BLEND OF FWC AND ETA BLYR TEMPS TODAY.

WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY LIKELY AFTER TNGTS CONVECTION...ANY RETURN
MOISTURE TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE INITIALLY CUT OFF.  THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF TSTMS ON TUESDAY DESPITE ETAS MOVEMENT OF
500MB WAVE ACROSS AREA TUES AFTN.  TSTMS WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MSTR
RETURN AND 700MB WAVE TUESDA NIGHT.  TEMPS TUESDAY ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

GRI TB 074/057/076/059/080 +31

DROZD

NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-091200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
11 AM CST MON JUN 8 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

SPOTTER ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY NEED
TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN KANSAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE IS THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
>
THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE A MAXIMUM FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING
...IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY INTO SUPERCELLS...
PRODUCING...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS...TO FREMONT...TO HARLAN IOWA
...SHOULD REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY.

ZAPOTOCNY