Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 1998

INTERESTING FCST THIS MRNG. ON THE SURFACE THE FCST LOOKS FAIRLY
SIMPLE...HOWEVER...AFTER LOOKING FURTHER...FCST BECOMES COMPLICATED
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE AND BRINGS UP CONCERNS ABOUT ADDITIONALLY FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

FIRST S/WV IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AT THIS TIME INCREASING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA OVER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PER SPS DISC...WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY IS FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS THIS MRNG. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATER THIS MRNG. S/WV WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY MID-MORNING...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BECOME SW-W
A DRASTIC INCREASE IN BOUYANCY CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION WITH
CAPES INCREASING TO 3000 J/G PLUS AND LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10. I
ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. DUE TO THE FCST SOUNDING SHOWING DRY MID-LEVELS
AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER CONFIGURATION...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WIDELY SCT-SCT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRNT TONIGHT...HOWEVER...GRIDDED DATA IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. DECENT LO LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRNT...HIGH CAPES/INSTABILITY/AND PRESENCE OF MODERATLY-STG UPPER DIV
OVER THE AREA DUE TO LOCATION OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OVER THE AREA SUGGEST
LIKELY CHCS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PWS ARE PROGGD TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 15
DEGREES...SO ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH THE STORMS
WEDNESDAY. ALSO...STORM MOTION WILL BE PARRALLEL TO FRONT WHICH WILL
GIVE THE THREAT FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AGAIN SVR WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED HIGH CAPES AND WATER LOADING OF THE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. WOULD SUGGEST GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AS FOR TEMPS WOULD RECOMMEND FOLLOWING THE FWC NOS...

DH