Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
715 PM EDT MON MAY 25 1998

AREA WSR-88DS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W/S-CENTRL KY AND W/MID TN. ADAP SHOWS THIS AREA
HAVING BEST LO LVL CONVERGENCE AND LIFTED INDICES OF -10 AND -12 AND
CAPES OF 3000 J/KG...SO AMS IS VERY UNSTABLE. MODELS ARE DEPICTING STG
DIV ALOFT OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 70-90
JET EXITING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODELS SHOW THE DIV ALOFT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL AS MODERATELY STG LO LVL CONVERGENCE. I WOULD
RECOMMEND UPPING POPS TO AT LEAST 70 PERCENT IF NOT CAT FOR CSV-TYS
LINE AND NORTHWARD WITH 50-60 POPS FPR SE TN. GIVEN PWS OF 1.4-1.6
INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 15 DEGREES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT WITH LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS.

WINDEX VALUES ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING MICRO-BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE HIGH CAPE VALUES SUGGESTING SOME STORMS COULD HAVE LARGE HAIL.

CURRENT TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD...EXPECT WOULD SUGGEST DROPPING LOWS FOR
SW VA TO NEAR 60. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

DH