Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
235 PM EDT THU MAY 21 1998

...MAIN FCST CHLG IS PRECIP CHCS THRU FCST PRD...

CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOS CLD FRNT NR KY/TN BRDR ATTM. LTL CONV HAS FIRED
ALNG FRNT DUE TO WEAK CAP OVR AREA. CRNT IR PIC SHOS 3 DIST MCSS OVR
MO..AND NE ATTM. THCKNS PATTERNS INDIC THAT MCSS SHUD CONT A SE
MOVMNT.  CRNT ADAP PRODS SHO LIS -10 TO -15 AND 0 CAP ATTM. SO AS UPR
LVL S/W MOVS INTO THE AREA W/ A LTL MORE SFC WARMING SHUD SEE SCT TSRA
OVR THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.

TONITE...W/ MCSS MOVING TWRDS SW VA/AND NE TN WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
GOOD CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT (50%) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A CHC OF TSRA (30%). AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...FWC/FAN NUMBERS
LOOK GOOD.  (60 TO 65) WK THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE PORTION OF
THE CWA WHICH WOULD INDICATE CRNT MCS SHUD REMAIN OVER THAT AREA.

FRIDAY...THCKNS PATTERNS TURN MOR SE OVR CWA AND UPR LVL S/WS MOV
INTO THE AREA UNDER WK NW FLOW...SO MCSS OVR NORTHERN MO AND NEBRASKA
SHUD MOV INTO THE AREA. UPR LVL DYNAMICS LUK WK ATTM HOWEVER THETA-E
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA SO PRECIP CHCS SHUD BE PRESENT...SO WOULD
LIKE TO INTRODUCE A 40 PERCENT CHC OF TSRA DURING THE DAY.  FWC/FAN
TEMPS LUK GOOD.  PARTLY CLOUDY SHUD PREVAIL ACRS CWA.  (80 TO 85)

FRIDAY NITE...ENTIRE CWA STAYS UNDER WK NW FLOW AND WK S/WS CONT TO
MOV THRU THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY W/ A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA.  FWC/FAN TEMPS LUK GOOD. (60 TO 65)

SAT...UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOV INTO THE AREA AND SHUD PUSH PRECIP
CHCS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SO WOULD LIKE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85.

PDK