Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
310 PM THU MAY 7 1998

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST TN IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN IN WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST TN AND A COLD FRONT OVER MIDDLE TN.  VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER AREA...SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  SHOULD PROBABLY KEEP THE
LIKELY POPS GOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.  MAY ALSO WANT TO
MENTION HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS EVENINGS STORMS WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 24 HOURS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT...THEN ETA A LITTLE QUICKER DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST EXITTING NORTHEAST TN BY
TOMORROW MORNING.  500MB LOW SHOULD BE OVER WV BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH EAST TN TOMMORROW...STILL SOME PVA
AND MOISTURE REMAINING TOMORROW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO KEEP LOW
POPS IN FOR FRIDAY.  LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FWC AND FAN TEMPERATURES...PREFER THE
COOLER FAN.

GH