Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
320 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

STRONG S/WV ROTATING NNE TWD MID TN THIS AM WHILE SHIELD OF LGT-MDT
RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT RAPIDLY N ACRS FA (ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF
LAST NITE).  SVR WATCH BOX ALREADY IN PLACE ACRS BAMA AND EXPECT
STORMS WL EVENTUALLY SHIFT/DEVELOP ACRS SRN VLY COUNTIES AND W/
STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/HELICITY STORMS
MAY BE SVR ACRS THIS REGION ARND 13-15Z TIMEFRAME WHILE PRECIP SHIELD
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE N ACRS THE NRN VLY/NRN MTN ZONES.
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG (IN AN ELEVATED FASHION) ACRS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CNTRL VLY ARND 14-17Z WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS
THE AREA CONTINUES N THRU THE NRN VLY/NRN MTNS ARND MID DAY.
ALTHOUGH THUNDER WL NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD DRNG THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACRS THE FA BELIEVE STORMS WL CONTINUE AS COLD POOL SWINGS
ACRS THE REGION.  DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT...STORMS MAY BE HAIL
PRODUCERS AND DRY PUNCH WL AID CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH SOME
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS STRONG LOW LVL FLO BECOMES SWLY RIGHT UP
THE GREAT VLY.
DOWNSLOPING WL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AGAIN TODAY AS STRONG ELY FLO
CONTINUES ACRS THE HIGH TERRAIN SO WOULD TREND TWD FWC MAXES.
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A WIND ADVISORY GOING IN THE MTN
ZONES TODAY AS 3-5 THOUSAND FT LVL FLO WL REMAIN ARND 30-40KTS.

COLD POOL SHIFTS NE OF FA BY 00Z WED HOWEVER...VORT LOBE AND SFC TROF
ROTATE SE INTO THE REGION AND WOULD STAY W/ THE ADVERTISED LKLY TO
GOOD CHC POPS IN FWC GUIDANCE.  GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

YET ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACRS OUR FA ON WED AND LOW LVL
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK OVR THE
SRN VLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PD REVEALING A BIT OF SUNSHINE
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE SERN U.S.  REMAINDER OF FA WL
NOT BE SO LUCKY ALTHOUGH DOWSLOPE FLO MAY ALLOW SOME BREAKS IN THE
CNTRL VLY BY AFTERNOON.  WOULD KEEP SMALL CHC POPS FOR -RA FOR ALL
ZONES BUT SRN VLY/SRN MTNS ON WED.  FAN TEMPS BETTER FOR WED EXCEPT
EXCEPT AT CHA WHERE FWC MAX ARND 58 CLOSER TO REALITY.

TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-
171615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
517 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
TODAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
BY MID DAY HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS EXTREMELY COLD AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE RADIO AND TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TH

TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-
171615-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
518 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
TODAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
BY MID DAY HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS EXTREMELY COLD AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE RADIO AND TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TH

TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-
171615-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
518 AM EST TUE FEB 17 1998

...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
TODAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
BY MID DAY HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS EXTREMELY COLD AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE RADIO AND TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TH