Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
245 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 1998

AND THE BEAT GOES ON....LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WITH ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE FA AS SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACRS TN AND TWO DECENT S/WVS SHIFT E.  1ST ROUND APPEARING ON
RADARS TO THE WEST ACRS MID MS VLY REGION WHICH WL PROVIDE NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA AT BEGINNING OF 1ST PD WHICH WL LAST INTO MID/LATE AM HOURS
AND 2ND ROUND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT WAVE MAKES ITS MOVE.  WOULD
EXPECT BEST CHC FOR HEAVIEST RAIN/SVR WX THREAT ACRS PLATEAU/CNTRL AND
SRN VLY/SRN MTN ZONES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY/MSTR CONVERGENCE WL EXIST
THRU EARLY EVE.  KIND OF LIKE CATEGORICAL POPS PROVIDED BY FWC GUIDANCE
FOR 1ST PD.  FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL POSSIBLE TODAY IN SRN ZONES.

SYSTEM/FNT SHIFT E AND DROP SLOLY INTO SRN VLY/SRN MTN ZONES TONITE BUT
WOULD KEEP LKLY POPS GOING AS AM NOT CONVINCED THAT FNT WL ACTUALLY MOV
VERY FAR FM CURRENT POSITION AND ADDITIONAL VORT LOBES IDENTIFIED ON
MODELS TO PASS ACRS FA TONITE.
>
LIKE SENARIO FM PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR SAT ACRS FA BUT WOULD RAISE POPS
TO 40% SRN VLY/SRN MTNS AS BELIEVE FNT WL NOT BE FAR TO THE SOUTH AS
UPR LVL FLO BASICALLY PARALLELS FNT WITH YET ANOTHER S/WV EXPECTED IN
AREA DURING THE DAY.

FWC TEMPS NOT BAD 1ST TWO PDS BUT WOULD TREND CLOSER TO FAN MAXES FOR
3RD PD.