Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 PM EDT MON APR 20 1998

UPR TROF/LOW WL BUILD SE FM THE MIDWEST TO MID TN THRU 48HRS BRINGING
RAIN BACK TO THE FA.  SFC RIDGE WL SHIFT SLOLY E ACRS AREA TONITE AND
CLOUD COVER WL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO BKN CI HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE MAINLY ACRS SRN VLY AND ALONG PLATEAU.
WITH LGT/VAR WIND AND SATURATED GROUND WOULD EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHC OF DENSE VARIETY OVR THE NRN VLY.
PREFER SLIGHTLY COOLER FWC MINS TONITE.

CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE MORNING MUCH OF FA WITH LIMITED SUN
AVAILABLE BY AFTERNOON AND WOULD WORD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  UPR TROF
AND SFC FNT WL SHIFT SLOWLY E ON TUE AND WOULD LIKE TO KEEP CURRENT
POPS AND PRECIP TIMING FM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS SLY FLO DEVELOPS FM
SFC-85H KEEPING MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL VLY ZONES IN RAIN SHADOW UNTIL
LATE IN 2ND PD/EARLY 3RD PD.  HOWEVER...PLATEAU/SRN VLY WL SE SHRA
DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
>
MAIN PD OF SHRA WL BE TUE NITE/EARLY WED AS SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND MAIN DYNAMICS BUILD SE TWD THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST.  WOULD USE
LKLY POPS FOR TUE NITE AND 40-50% POPS ON WED W/ GOOD CHC VARIETY IN
MTN ZONES AND SRN VLY.

AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED...BELIEVE ETA MODEL IS OVER ESTIMATING
RAINFALL BUT BELIEVE BASIN AVERAGES WL BE CLOSER TO 0.20-0.40 WHICH
WL BE SPREAD OUT OVR A 12-18HR PD.  THEREFORE...DONT EXPECT INTENSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WL REMAIN LIMITED.  THE ONLY
PROBLEM WL BE A SLOWER FALL IN AREA STREAMS/RIVERS THRU MID WEEK.

PREFER TEMPS CLOSER TO FAN GUIDANCE 2ND THRU 4TH PDS.