Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1205 PM EST SUN MAR 29 1998

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER CENTRAL WI. TOPS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WARMING ON THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES.
CONVERGENCE FROM THE NOSE OF LLJ SETTING OFF CONVECTION.  WARM FRONT
IS STILL MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  ETA CAPE FIELDS DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING,
PROBABLY NOT PICKING UP ON INSTABILITY ALOFT.  ETA QG FRONTOGENESIS
AND MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELD IS STRONGEST TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION.  THE STRONGEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE
U.P. HOWEVER.  BOTH THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET AND COUPLED UPPER JETS
STACK OVER THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING. MODELS SOUNDING INDICATE
BEST MOISTURE FOR THE U.P. WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ALLUDED ABOVE, BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE THIS EVENING THOUGH. EVEN
THOUGH MORE INSTABILITY WOULD BE DESIRABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE
WINDS FIELDS AT BOTH LOW AND UPPER LEVELS ARE TOO HARD TO IGNORE.
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS EVENING IS WELL WARRANTED.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO ZONES.  DID TWEAK TEMPS UP A TOUCH
AND ADDED THUNDER TO THE WI BORDER ZONES.

KFM

MIZ011>013-300800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  MARQUETTE MI
845 PM EST SUN MAR 29 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DICKINSON...MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EST/200 AM CST...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL 300
AM EST/200 AM CST. THE WATCH INCLUDES DICKINSON... MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES AND THE COMMUNITIES OF IRON MOUNTAIN... MENOMINEE AND ESCANABA.
THE WATCH ALSO INCLUDES ADJACENT WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

AT 845 PM EST... DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MILES AN HOUR AND
WILL REACH IRON MOUNTAIN AROUND 1000 PM EST/900 PM CST.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. BE ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GFF

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