Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 PM CST THU FEB 26 1998

SQUALL LINE HAS LIFTED N OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NEW STORMS ARE
INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY ALONG SRN EXTENT OF SQUALL LINE AS UPPER S/W
ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER TROF. JUST DISCUSSED SITUATION WITH SPC...AND
NEW TOR WATCH IS UPCOMING FOR SE MS/SW AL. BELIEVE NEW DEVELOPMENT
EXTENDING ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT WILL GET AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN PORTION OF CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE INDICATES POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WITH ISOLATED CELLS.

MODELS PROG BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NRN CWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SFC FRONT MOVING ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT. FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF CWA BY 12Z FRI. SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING WITH
FROPA. UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH FCST
PERIOD...WITH UPPER FLOW OVER FA REMAINING SWLY THROUGH PERIOD. AS
RESULT...SFC FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS AREA TONIGHT...AND
WILL STALL JUST EAST OF FA AND EXTEND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL GULF BY
FRI. ATTM...THINK FRONT WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT POPS WILL
BE LOW OVER CWA TOMORROW. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER
WESTERN GULF SAT AND MOVE NE SAT NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN
LATE SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER FA DURING EXTENDED PERIOD.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG EAST ACROSS COASTAL WATERS IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...ENDING WITH THE WINDSHIFT. SCAS WITH SEAS UP TO 10
FT...DECREASING TO 4 FT BY END OF PERIOD.

MOB 53/68/42/66 8112  PNS 56/72/43/67 6112
DTS 57/71/48/66 4112  EVR 49/68/37/64 5112 12

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST THU FEB 26 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON....AND BECOME NUMEROUS OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MAINLY WEST OF I-65 AFTER 2 PM. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. STRONGER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH ALABAMA EAST OF
I-65 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL: ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.