Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUIES TO LINGER OVER THE SE US WITH
WEAK SFC TROF AND THETE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN AL SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR GZD THEN EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRL GA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
THEMODYNAMIC FORCING HAS ALLOWED SCT TS TO DEV MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF LINE FROM GROVEHILL TO CEW. WITH CONTINUE DEVELOPED IN THESE AREAS
THIS AFT BELIEVE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD IS LIKELY ALONG
POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS FROM EXISTING STORMS. LATER IN THE PD FOR SUN AND
MON SHORT WAVE TROF WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN NEAR THE CST
THROUGH THE PD THUS GIVING WAY TO EXTRA LIFT FOR SCT TS DEVELOPMENT
BY EACH AFT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FWC TEMPS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...RIDGING BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SUN.  WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10/15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEAS 2/3 FEET.

MOB 75/95/74/95 3323  PNS 76/95/75/95 3323
DTS 78/88/77/88 3323  EVR 74/95/73/96 3323 32

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1025 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL COOL SPOTS LEFT BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING.

SOMEWHAT DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS WILL ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMA PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED
THROUGH TONIGHT.